081
FXUS66 KMFR 021052
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
352 AM PDT WED APR 2 2025
DISCUSSION
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON. MEANWHILE, MOST
HOURS AND LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY IN NORTHERN CAL AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES, ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS IN
PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST
OREGON. IT WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. WE'LL
HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER. IT WILL BREEZY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE WE
REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.
IT WILL BE DRY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE AREA, WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. ID-UPPER 70S ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR EAST
SIDE LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY, THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE FRONT
ARRIVING SUNDAY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS KEEPS THE FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CLUSTERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS MONDAY. FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
THE STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO SHIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY, EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EVEN THEN, WERE ONLY EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
-PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...02/06Z TAFS
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER A CONCERN, AND
GENERALLY VFR LEVELS ARE BRING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. THERE'S
CHANCES OF PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CHANCE OF FOG
AT THE KLAMATH FALLS TERMINAL IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF IF FOG DOES DEVELOP.
SLIGHT TO MODERATE (30-50%) CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF AND
ALONG THE CASCADES CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS
ARE LIGHT AND FLIGHT LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE GENERALLY IMPACTED. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2, 2025
WHILE
VERY ISOLATED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE STEEP SEAS TODAY, WE
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTING EASING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY.
HOWEVER, NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN STEEP SEAS. THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A BUILDING LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL ON IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
STEEP SEAS ONCE AGAIN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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