187
FXUS66 KMFR 021818
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1118 AM PDT WED APR 2 2025
DISCUSSION
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON. MEANWHILE, MOST
HOURS AND LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY IN NORTHERN CAL AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES, ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS IN
PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST
OREGON. IT WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. WE'LL
HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER. IT WILL BREEZY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE WE
REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.
IT WILL BE DRY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE AREA, WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. ID-UPPER 70S ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR EAST
SIDE LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY, THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE FRONT
ARRIVING SUNDAY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS KEEPS THE FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CLUSTERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS MONDAY. FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
THE STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO SHIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY, EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EVEN THEN, WERE ONLY EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
-PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...02/18Z TAFS
OVERALL, VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED IN THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS
NORTH AND WEST, BUT ALSO OUT TOWARD WINTER RIM AND THE WARNER MTNS
WILL BRING AREAS OF BRIEF MVFR ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURATION. WHILE SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, THEY PROBABLY DON'T GO AWAY COMPLETELY. AGAIN, PREVALENT
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS
COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AND/OR FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT ROSEBURG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2, 2025
OVERALL,
EXPECT SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET AT 10 SECONDS TODAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20KT RANGE. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN STEEP SHORT-
PERIOD SEAS. WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT TO 20 NM FROM
SHORE OFF CAPE BLANCO, AND EXTENDING TO 60 NM FROM SHORE OFF PT. ST.
GEORGE. THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A BUILDING LONG PERIOD (18-20 SECONDS) WEST
SWELL IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STEEP
SEAS ONCE AGAIN. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO
3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
MAS/MAP
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