525
FXUS66 KMFR 231038
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
338 AM PDT WED APR 23 2025
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER IN
NORTHERN CAL AND IN PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY. RADAR IS
SHOWING RETURNS IN NORTHERN CAL AND PORTIONS OF KLAMATH COUNTY.
MOUNT SHASTA IS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MIGRATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
LAKE, SOUTHEAST KLAMATH AND PORTIONS OF MODOC COUNTY.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, AND WE'LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THERE.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, THEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST RESULTING
IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THE CAMS (CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS) WHICH SHOWS RADAR
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. GIVEN THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN INCREASING INSTABILITY EAST OF THE UPPER LOW.
ADDITIONALLY, THE HREF CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SHOWS THE
HIGHEST VALES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES MID TO LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS SHIFTING OVER THE CASCADES THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE SHAPING UP TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SHOWERS MOST FREQUENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE ISOLATED.
EVIDENCE IS POINTING TOWARDS DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI
AVIATION
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED AT MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL PEAK AT 30-35KT AT NORTH BEND,
WHILE INLAND SITES WILL GENERALLY SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-25KT
RANGE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN TOGGLING AROUND COOS BAY AND BANDON AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
SECTIONS (NE CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES).
OVERALL, CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN VFR, THOUGH LOCAL MVFR AND TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WARNER MTNS. THESE CLOUDS PERSIST AND SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SLIGHTLY UPTICK IN WINDS NEAR
THE COAST ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. -SPILDE/HERMANSEN
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM WEDNESDAY, APRIL 23RD
MODERATE NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT THEY WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT THURSDAY, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
JUST ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY AND REMAINING THERE INTO
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE WITH NO MARINE HAZARDS. -PETRUCELLI
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-
376.
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