692
FXUS66 KMFR 231604
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
904 AM PDT WED APR 23 2025
DISCUSSION
THERE ARE SOME ECHOS ON RADAR THIS MORNING EAST OF THE CASCADES
WITH THE LAKEVIEW STATION REPORTING SNOW FLURRIES WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO 5 MILES AT TIMES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ONGOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SPC HREF SHOWS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION BEYOND TODAY, READ THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
AVIATION...23/12Z TAFS
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS MARINE STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST, JUST SOUTH OF NORTH BEND TO CAPE BLANCO AND NORTHERN
CURRY AND SOUTHER COOS COUNTY. MARINE STRATUS WILL ALSO FILL IN OVER
THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN SOUTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS WITH
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AT NORTH BEND LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. GUSTY BREEZES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT ROSEBURG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE IN PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN CAL AND SOUTHEAST LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES, BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. -PETRUCELLI
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM WEDNESDAY, APRIL 23RD
MODERATE NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT THEY WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT THURSDAY, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
JUST ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY AND REMAINING THERE INTO
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE WITH NO MARINE HAZARDS. -PETRUCELLI
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 423 AM PDT WED APR 23 2025/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER IN
NORTHERN CAL AND IN PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY. RADAR IS
SHOWING RETURNS IN NORTHERN CAL AND PORTIONS OF KLAMATH COUNTY.
MOUNT SHASTA IS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MIGRATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
LAKE, SOUTHEAST KLAMATH AND PORTIONS OF MODOC COUNTY.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, AND WE'LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THERE.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, THEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST RESULTING
IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THE CAMS (CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS) WHICH SHOWS RADAR
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. GIVEN THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN INCREASING INSTABILITY EAST OF THE UPPER LOW.
ADDITIONALLY, THE HREF CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SHOWS THE
HIGHEST VALES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES MID TO LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS SHIFTING OVER THE CASCADES THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE SHAPING UP TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SHOWERS MOST FREQUENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE ISOLATED.
EVIDENCE IS POINTING TOWARDS DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-
376.
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