589
FXUS66 KMFR 241616
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
916 AM PDT THU APR 24 2025
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IS SHOWING CLEARER SKIES INLAND WITH MARINE STRATUS AT THE
COAST THIS MORNING. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. INTO THE AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU, JOSEPHINE, JACKSON AND CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTIES
WITH 100-250 J/KG CAPES FORECAST. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE THUNDER
AND GUSTY WINDS, WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. WE WILL CONTINUE
REVIEWING THE FORECAST FOR THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE COOLDOWN
INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM THURSDAY, APRIL 24, 2025
WIND DRIVEN SEAS
WILL PERSIST AROUND SIX TO SEVEN FEET THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE DAY AS WINDS WEAKEN. CALMER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
THE SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY FRIDAY.
-SMITH
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 449 AM PDT THU APR 24 2025/
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME TIME A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS IS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THE CAMS (CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS) WHICH SHOWS RADAR
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE HREF CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SHOWS THE
HIGHEST VALES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES MID TO LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SHOWERS MOST FREQUENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. GUIDANCE
SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PORTIONS OF KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THEREFORE WE'LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE ISOLATED.
MOST OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND CLUSTERS MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS.
-PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...24/12Z TAFS...ALONG THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OFTHE MORNING, THEN
CEILINGS ANS VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT IS LOW TO MEDIUM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE
AFTERNOON. STABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INLAND, WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INCREASING
CONCERN FOR ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING, THEREFORE PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE MEDFORD AND ROSEBURG TAFS. BECAUSE WE'LL BE IN A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, THERE IS
CONCERN FOR TURBULENCE, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE CONCERN FOR STORMS ENDS AROUND 3Z THIS
EVENING, BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THE CONCERN FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE LOW EAST
OF THE CASCADES, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF KLAMATH
FALLS TOWARDS 0Z. SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF OR AT
KLAMATH FALLS, IT COULD RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, ALONG
WITH SOME TURBULENCE. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. -PETRUCELLI
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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