189
FXUS66 KMFR 250345
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
845 PM PDT THU APR 24 2025
DISCUSSION
WE SAW SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG THE
JACKSON/JOSEPHINE COUNTY BORDER EARLIER THIS EVENING, BUT
LIGHTNING HAS NOT BEEN SENSED IN SOME TIME. A LINE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES, WHILE
OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE INLAND. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
OVER TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THAT AREA TOMORROW, AS WELL AS OVER LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE CONSIDERED CLOSELY IN FUTURE
FORECASTING CONSIDERATIONS.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SHORT-
AND LONG-TERM FORECAST. -TAD
AVIATION...25/00Z TAFS
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH THEY APPEAR FAIRLY WEAK BASED ON SATELLITE DATA
AND AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY. LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CEILINGS MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE HIGH BASES
AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET. HOWEVER, VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCED UNDER
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS.
CLOSE TO THE COAST, WE'RE EXPECTING THE STRATUS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS, OR PERHAPS LIFR CEILINGS
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
MORE LIKELY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND MVFR CEILINGS MORE LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM THURSDAY, APRIL 24, 2025
SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO TONIGHT AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
INTO FRIDAY. SEAS INCREASE INTO SATURDAY AS A NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES
INTO THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PUSH CLOSE TO 10 FEET BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS OFF PT ST.
GEORGE.
WAVES COULD BE ON THE DOWNTREND IN NORTHERN WATERS, ALTHOUGH STRONG
NORTHERLIES OR A THERMAL TROUGH COULD KEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS AROUND THE
8 TO 10 FOOT MARK IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
-SMITH
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 453 PM PDT THU APR 24 2025/
DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 243 PM PDT THU APR 24 2025/
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE OVERALL AROUND 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN
THE MID-70S AND UPPER 50S/60S ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE HAS SHOWN MORE
CUMULUS BUILDING BELOW CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN JACKSON AND SISKIYOU
COUNTIES.
PAINTBALL ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING AN AREA FROM JOSEPHINE COUNTY TO
WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY FOR SHOWERS WITH HIGHER RETURNS. THE SREF
IS ALSO SHOWCASING A 70-90% PROBABILITY FOR MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO
REACH AT LEAST 250 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON FROM 5 PM-8 PM IN THE
ABOVE AREAS. WITH THAT, HAVE INCREASED THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON TO PUSH FARTHER WESTWARD. THE MOVEMENT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO COME IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS.
TOMORROW'S PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO EXTEND TO AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS THE UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUTS OUR AREA AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME MODELS
INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER EAST OF THE CASCADES TOMORROW,
SO THIS HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST AT A 15-20% CHANCE.
THANKFULLY SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6,500 FEET SO MOSTLY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE CASCADES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CRATER
LAKE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 3 PM- 7 PM FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY THESE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND FOCUS ON AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN, IT WILL ALSO BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-/UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES
ARE FAVORING RIDGING TO SET INTO THE PNW EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A
WARM UP WILL BE FELT WITH HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR 80 DEGREES IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS
REACHING 60-80% NEXT THURSDAY. -HERMANSEN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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