308
FXUS66 KMFR 251553
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
853 AM PDT FRI APR 25 2025
DISCUSSION
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWEST OFF THE
COAST AND IN MODOC AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. OUR OVERNIGHT
METEOROLOGIST FOUND THAT "ALL TOTALED, VARIOUS LIGHTNING NETWORKS
SHOWED ABOUT 50-70 CG FLASHES WITH THE MOST ACTIVE CELL MOVING
OVER GALICE BETWEEN 430 AND 600 PM." THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR MORE RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
15-25% PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IN SISKIYOU, JACKSON AND KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES. WE WILL BE TRACKING MORE OF THE RAIN TODAY AS
WELL AS THE RAIN WRAPPING UP TOMORROW INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
-HERMANSEN
MARINE...UPDATED 845 AM FRIDAY, APRIL 25, 2025
MOSTLY GENTLE
NORTH WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
CAUSING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. STEEP SEAS PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT DESPITE WINDS EASING A BIT. A THERMAL TROUGH
MAINTAINS NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS, HIGHEST SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK WINDS AND WAVES IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 338 AM PDT FRI APR 25 2025/
DISCUSSION...GOES-18 AIR MASS RGB IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OUT AROUND 40N AND 313W OR ABOUT 350 MILES OFF CAPE
MENDOCINO EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE RODE NNW
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, INITIATING SOME CONVECTION, MOSTLY FROM
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY UP ACROSS JOSEPHINE COUNTY. BUT, THERE WAS
ALSO AN ISOLATED FLASH OR TWO DETECTED IN SW JACKSON COUNTY NEAR
APPLEGATE AND IN FAR SW DOUGLAS COUNTY WEST OF GLENDALE. ALL
TOTALED, VARIOUS LIGHTNING NETWORKS SHOWED ABOUT 50-70 CG FLASHES
WITH THE MOST ACTIVE CELL MOVING OVER GALICE BETWEEN 430 AND 600
PM. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY, SO WE'LL BE ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW AND A GENERAL SE-E FLOW ALOFT. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WHILE IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON,
THE BEST CAPE IS FROM THE SISKIYOU MTNS/CASCADES AND OVER TO THE
EAST SIDE, BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN KLAMATH AND ALSO LAKE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT APPEARS THE MOST ACTIVE CELLS
(LIGHTNING-WISE) WILL DEVELOP OVER HARNEY COUNTY TO THE EAST, BUT
COULD GRAZE EASTERN LAKE AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE NW. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS. WHILE SOME AREAS MIGHT MISS OUT ON THE RAIN ALTOGETHER,
BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IF YOU GET UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER
SHOWER.
THE FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED LOW RE-ORIENTS AS IT CUTS UNDERNEATH
US INTO CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA UNDER A DEFORMATION AXIS WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WHILE WE STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO
LINGER WEST OF THE CASCADES, THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO AREAS FROM THE CASCADES SOUTH AND EASTWARD DURING
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
55-65F, EXCEPT IN THE 45-55F RANGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ANY SNOW
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. MODELS
DO SHOW THE BEST RAINFALL ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY.
ONCE AGAIN, EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY, BUT A GENERAL
FORECAST OF 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH SEEMS LIKELY -- SOME MORE
(MOUNTAINS), SOME LESS (VALLEYS). AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL
DO WELL TO GET 0.10 OF AN INCH.
WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE. WHILE STILL
A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE, SUNDAY SHOULD BE A NICER DAY (ALBEIT A
BIT BREEZY) FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE
DRY AND WARMER WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD. A MOSTLY DRY FRONT
(THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS) WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN EVEN STRONGER UPPER RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT
PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
HERE IN MEDFORD. OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IS 84F HERE.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ARE SHOWN TO MOVE IN
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. -SPILDE
AVIATION...25/12Z TAFS...LIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS. COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING.
SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. WHILE THERE
IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BEST
INSTABILITY IS FROM THE SISKIYOUS/CASCADES EASTWARD, ESPECIALLY
OUT OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT, BUT SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER IN MANY AREAS.
OVERALL, EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PERSIST. FOCUS FOR SHOWERS SHIFTS FROM
CASCADES SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. STILL COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THERE AS WELL. THINGS CALM DOWN ON SUNDAY. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5
AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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