593
FXUS66 KMFR 252139
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
239 PM PDT FRI APR 25 2025
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS ARE SPREADING ACROSS KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER WITH A SMALL THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KLAMATH/JACKSON COUNTY BORDER. TEMPERATURES ARE FACING A 5-10
DEGREE COOLDOWN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE LOW/MID-60S AT THE WARMEST.
THE UPPER LOW IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST TO THE SOUTH
INTO CALIFORNIA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY WITH MORE OF IT REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THESE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON AND INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A 20-30% PROBABILITY TO SEE SOME
THUNDER FOR PARTS OF JACKSON AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY WITH THE HREF
PROPOSING A 30-40% PROBABILITY THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED ON PORTIONS OF
LAKE COUNTY, SO THERE IS A 15-25% PROBABILITY ADDED FOR THAT AREA
WITH FORECAST CAPES 100-250 J/KG. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO
AROUND 6,000-6,500 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MEANING THAT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INCLUDING CRATER LAKE AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS IN MODOC
COUNTY WILL HAVE SOME SNOW. OTHERWISE, LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE RAIN SHOWERS THAT FOCUS ON AREAS IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND UP
THROUGH KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING RIDGING TO SET INTO THE PNW EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WARM UP WILL BE FELT WITH HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR 80 DEGREES IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS
REACHING 70-90% NEXT THURSDAY. -HERMANSEN
AVIATION...25/18Z TAFS
LIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIFR CEILINGS ALONG THE
COAST. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE PERSISTING WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH PERIODS OF VFR EAST OF THE CASCADES.
SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO
DESTABILIZE. IN ADDITION, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY THERE IN THE MODEL DATA. THEREFORE, GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR KLAMATH FALLS(KLMT). LIFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 845 AM FRIDAY, APRIL 25, 2025
MOSTLY GENTLE
NORTH WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
CAUSING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. STEEP SEAS PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT DESPITE WINDS EASING A BIT. A THERMAL TROUGH
MAINTAINS NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS, HIGHEST SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK WINDS AND WAVES IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5
AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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