568
FXUS66 KMFR 261131
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
431 AM PDT SAT APR 26 2025
DISCUSSION
YESTERDAY MARKED THE FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
(0.08") IN MEDFORD SINCE APRIL 7TH, ENDING A STRETCH OF 17
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT ANY RAINFALL. THIS BRINGS THE TOTAL
RAINFALL FOR APRIL TO 0.62", WHICH, FOR THE MONTH IS 0.69" BELOW
NORMAL. EVEN SO, THE WATER YEAR RAINFALL OF 20.12" (SINCE OCT 1)
REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL (+4.96").
THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OFFSHORE YESTERDAY IS NOW JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN PASO
ROBLES AND SANTA BARBARA (JUST NORTH OF LA) THIS MORNING. IT'LL
THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN
UTAH ON SUNDAY. MORNING RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ROTATING AROUND THIS CLOSED LOW WITH THE
ORIENTATION/MOVEMENT FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE CWA. THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS FROM THE CASCADES SOUTHWESTWARD, BUT
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND, HIGHEST ODDS FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFT
FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT CAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG COULD
INITIATE A FEW STRONGER CELLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CG LIGHTNING FLASHES ARE MOST LIKELY IN LAKE
COUNTY, BUT PERHAPS A FEW AS FAR BACK AS THE CASCADES NEAR
CHILOQUIN AND ALSO ALONG THE WARNER MTNS IN MODOC COUNTY. ONCE
AGAIN, ODDS ARE HIGH FOR 0.10-0.25" OF PRECIPITATION (WETTING
RAINFALL) FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND SOUTH TODAY, BUT STEADIER
PRECIP (OR, AT LEAST MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS) SETTING UP FROM
EASTERN SISKIYOU TO MODOC/SOUTHEAST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES
COULD RESULT IN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75". SNOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY
HIGH, SO ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
6000 FEET (MOSTLY MEDICINE LAKE REGION IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NEAR
THE WARNERS). TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S/LOW 60S. PRECIPITATION ENDS WEST OF
THE CASCADES THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY EDGES SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH THE CLOSED LOW MOVING AWAY ON SUNDAY, SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DRIES OUT. IT'LL START OUT CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR MANY
AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT MOST AREAS SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH RESPECT TO
NORMAL, THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT MILDER.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MON-THU. ASIDE FROM A WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS, MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. AFTER THE TROUGH
MOVES BY, SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL OCCUR WED-THU. INLAND VALLEY
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THU ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LARGELY IN
THE 75-85F RANGE (84 HERE IN MEDFORD).
THE NEXT TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FRIDAY
ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -SPILDE
AVIATION...26/12Z TAFS
SHOWERS ARE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE
CASCADES SOUTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. THESE WILL PIVOT AND FOCUS FROM
THE CASCADES SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWER
MOVEMENT WILL BE MOSTLY FROM NE TO SW. CONDITIONS MOSTLY ARE A MIX
OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS, THOUGH AREAS OF LIFR FOG ARE OUT AND ABOUT
AS WELL THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF MVFR CIGS IN MOST PLACES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM SATURDAY, APRIL 26, 2025
NORTHERLY
WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD WAVES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL AREAS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SOME TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS EASE A BIT, THOUGH
STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS, HIGHEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH PEAK WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
-SPILDE/BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
MAS/MAS/MAS
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