019
FXUS66 KMFR 290312
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
812 PM PDT MON APR 28 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM MONDAY, APRIL 28, 2025
GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEPEST
SEAS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. NORTH WINDS WEAKEN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT AREAS OF STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE FROM NEAR GOLD BEACH SOUTHWARD.
THEN NORTH WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF STEEP SEAS FROM NEAR COOS BAY SOUTHWARD. LOCALLY
VERY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH
OF GOLD BEACH. WINDS AND SEAS LOWER ON THURSDAY. THEN, AN
APPROACHING FRONT MAY BRING STEEP SWELL AND MARINE SHOWERS NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 441 PM PDT MON APR 28 2025/
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK FRONT PASSING THROUGH
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ASIDE FROM SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WEAK FRONT,
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND
THAT PEAKS ON THURSDAY. A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THIS
PAST WEEKEND RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING HAS SCATTERED OUT, LEAVING THE AREA
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE AND EASTERN MODOC COUNTIES, AND A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS IS STREAMING OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY, AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL END UP IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST
WEST SIDE VALLEYS (75-80F IN THE LOWER KLAMATH VALLEY FROM HAPPY
CAMP TO SOMES BAR) AND IN THE 60S OVER THE EAST SIDE. OVERALL,
FAIRLY TYPICAL AFTERNOON N-NW BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
TODAY THAT'LL LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES (25-50%) EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS (ROSEBURG/CRATER
LAKE/SUMMER LAKE NORTHWARD) AND ACROSS LAKE/MODOC COUNTIES EARLY
TUESDAY. WHERE IT DOES RAIN, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDRETHS AT BEST, WITH MAYBE UP TO 0.10" FOR THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF LAKE/MODOC COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE RESUMES CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ANOTHER CLIMB TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES, REACHING 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY. EXPECT COOL (WEST SIDE) TO
CHILLY (EAST SIDE) MORNINGS BOTH DAYS, BUT WITH NICE, WARM
AFTERNOONS. WITH THE PEAK OF THE WARMTH EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, HIGHS
IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL FALL IN THE 80-85F RANGE
(UPPER 80S LOWER KLAMATH). EAST SIDE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. THESE VALUES ON THURSDAY COULD
EASILY BECOME THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR AND WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY THAN EARLY MAY. WE DON'T EXPECT
RECORDS TO FALL AS CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 1ST ARE IN THE LOW
90S/UPPER 80S, BUT THESE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL IN THE TOP 5
WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE.
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE, HOWEVER, SO THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL LOOK QUITE SIMILAR
TO THE ONE EXPERIENCED JUST THIS PAST WEEKEND (AND MORE SIMILAR TO
EARLY MARCH) WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL SWING FROM 15-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO 10-15
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY! AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION ON
FRIDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH WILL ELONGATE JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY, DIGGING
SOUTHWARD AND CUTTING OFF A LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AS WE REMAIN IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GRATE
BASIN ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY,
THOUGH SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS (SE LAKE/MODOC
COUNTIES). BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF LATE SUNDAY, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.25"-0.50" WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA WITH UP TO
0.75" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND
4500-5000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, REACHING AS LOW AS 3500 FT
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE FEW INCHES (1-3") OF SNOW IN THE
CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE PUSHED EAST INTO LAKE/MODOC COUNTIES BY
THE TIME SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. OVER THAT WAY, THERE
COULD AROUND 2-4" OF ACCUMULATION IN THE WARNERS BY THE TIME THIS
LATE-SEASON SYSTEM IS DONE. /BR-Y
AVIATION...29/00Z TAFS...ALONG THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR AND HOVERING CLOSE TO IFR TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, CEILINGS COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
INLAND, WEST OF THE CASCADES, THERE'S EVIDENCE SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE DOUGLAS COUNTY, TOWARDS THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE TONIGHT, THEN FILLING IN TOWARDS ROSEBURG LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE, IF ANY IMPACT IN TERMS OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. ALSO THE TERRAIN WILL BE AT LEAST PARTLY
OBSCURED TUESDAY MORNING, THEN CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE.
SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE, INCLUDING MEDFORD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EAST OF THE CASCADES, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. -PETRUCELLI
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
CC/CC/CC
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