650
FXUS66 KMFR 152114
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
214 PM PDT THU MAY 15 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY (5/17)
CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ONSHORE TODAY. THERE ARE SOME RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER
COOS AND NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES, BUT SO FAR NOTHING HAS
MEASURED ACCORDING TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH
MOST COMMON AND STRONGEST EAST OF THE CASCADES. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST) CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY
NORTH OF THE OR/CA BORDER AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT.
WE'LL REMAIN UNDER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED
TO TODAY. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR
TO THE ONE EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, THOUGHT WITH LESS
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION AND EVEN MORE SO ON
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND ENHANCES SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST EAST OF THE CASCADES, THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE (15%-30%) OF STORMS FOCUSED OVER FAR EASTERN
LAKE/MODOC COUNTIES.
THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISHING FOR MOST OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM
ALONG THE COAST AND CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY (5/18) THROUGH THURSDAY (5/22)
NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THIS COULD MAINTAIN SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LOW IMPACT WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO SEASONAL NORMALS, MAYBE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
ENSEMBLES SHOW A WEAK FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF NORTH BEND/ROSEBURG/CRATER
LAKE. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LIGHT, AND
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE
TIME GETS CLOSER. /BR-Y
AVIATION...15/18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES, THE
ROGUE/UMPQUA DIVIDE, AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. LATER
TODAY, AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO INCREASE, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, BY
THIS EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. -BPN/HERMANSEN
MARINE....MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM THURSDAY, MAY 15, 2025
GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. SEAS DIMINISH A BIT FRIDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS
ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. -BPN/HERMANSEN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
MNF/ANH
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