030
FXUS66 KMFR 161550
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 AM PDT FRI MAY 16 2025
DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT
CLOUD COVER IS STARTING TO BREAK UP UNDER DAYLIGHT, BUT AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A CONCERN FOR THIS SHIFT WILL BE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EAST OF THE CASCADES. SPC HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS AGREEMENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AND BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS, BUT THIS PERIOD
WILL GET A CLOSER LOOK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SHORT-
AND LONG-TERM FORECASTS. -TAD
AVIATION...16/12Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR TODAY, EXCEPT
FOR LOCAL MVFR AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH VFR PREVAILING AREAWIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SPREADING INLAND ALONG WITH AREAS
OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS. -BPN
MARINE....UPDATED 830 AM FRIDAY, MAY 16, 2025...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS ARE WEAKENING TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS, AS WELL AS AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS ALSO
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH RETURNS BY MIDWEEK. -BPN/HERMANSEN
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 305 AM PDT FRI MAY 16 2025/
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SLOPES. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY, RESULTING IN A MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
AND WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ONE EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS
WEEK, THOUGH WITH LESS PRECIPITATION. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION,
AND EVEN MORE SO ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND
ENHANCES SHOWER ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN, BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES, WHERE INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST. CURRENT HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AREA AROUND
LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE AREA, WITH STORMS
GENERALLY TRACKING WEST TO EAST. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG, BUT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISHING FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ASIDE
FROM SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST, AND ALONG THE
CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE.
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
TO OUR NORTH, OVER NORTHERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THIS COULD
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT MOST
OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
LOW IMPACT WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO SEASONAL NORMALS, MAYBE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
ENSEMBLES SHOW A WEAK FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF NORTH BEND/ROSEBURG/CRATER
LAKE. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LIGHT, AND
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE
TIME GETS CLOSER. -BPN/BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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