664
FXUS66 KMFR 191031
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
331 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2025
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE AND
IS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST, NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
CASCADES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT A ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER IN NORTHERN DOUGLAS, COOS AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A ZONAL FLOW LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEN, UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THEN
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING REMAINING A PLAY MAKER FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FOR THE INTERIOR.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAN TOWARDS A DRY AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THE MAJORITY OF THE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS
FAVOR THE UPPER RIDGING SOLUTION WITH ONLY 13% OF THE TOTAL MEMBERS
SHOWING THE QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AND 30%
MEMORIAL DAY. THUS THE ODDS ARE IN OUR FAVOR FOR A DRY AND MILD TO
WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...19/06Z TAFS
THIS CYCLE WILL BE NOTED BY VFR
CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING TO MVFR TONIGHT (OR CLOSE TO IT) WITH THE
ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE COAST WHERE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
(65-90%) WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH PARTS OF TOMORROW. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM IS BRINGING A NARROW LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION, AND THIS MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL FOR COASTAL
AREAS (50%-80%) BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR INLAND AREAS. ROSEBURG
COULD END UP WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL AS WELL. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
CHANCE THESE SHOWERS MAY BE TOO ISOLATED AND NOT IMPACT THE
TERMINAL. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS BECAUSE THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND TOMORROW. -GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM MONDAY, MAY 19, 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS FROM PORT ORFORD NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY WITHIN 20
NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND STEEP WEST-NORTHEST SWELL BUILDS INTO
THE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS TREND LOWER BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY. -PETRUCELLI
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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