334
FXUS66 KMFR 191747
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1047 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2025
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION...19/18Z TAFS
ALONG THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE,
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
INLAND, WEST OF THE CASCADES, MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL START RISING TO VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY BREEZES ARE LIKELY AT ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
EAST OF THE CASCADES, VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY BREEZES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, KLAMATH FALLS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING
CEILINGS. PARTIAL OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
-PETRUCELLI/HERMANSEN
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 827 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2025/
DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS MORNING TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS TO THE CASCADES, WITH A FEW ALSO POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
THE HIGHWAY 97 CORRIDOR OF KLAMATH COUNTY. WE WILL HAVE A WEEK OF
SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES. THE
DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE SHOWERS FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT
SECONDARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON. THESE WAVES ARE TIMED FOR
THIS MORNING, THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, AND THE STRONGEST OF THEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAY 8/9...NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
MARINE....UPDATED 830 AM MONDAY, MAY 19, 2025...A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS FROM PORT ORFORD NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY WITHIN 20
NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND STEEP WEST-NORTHEST SWELL BUILDS INTO
THE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS TREND LOWER BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY. -PETRUCELLI/HERMANSEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2025/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE AND
IS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST, NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
CASCADES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT A ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER IN NORTHERN DOUGLAS, COOS AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A ZONAL FLOW LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEN, UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THEN
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING REMAINING A PLAY MAKER FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FOR THE INTERIOR.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAN TOWARDS A DRY AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THE MAJORITY OF THE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS
FAVOR THE UPPER RIDGING SOLUTION WITH ONLY 13% OF THE TOTAL MEMBERS
SHOWING THE QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AND 30%
MEMORIAL DAY. THUS THE ODDS ARE IN OUR FAVOR FOR A DRY AND MILD TO
WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -PETRUCELLI
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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