028
FXUS66 KMFR 091707
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1007 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
A MARINE LAYER (IFR) STILL EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BUT
THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD GO TO VFR ALONG WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING THESE CONDITIONS. TODAY WILL BE NOTED BY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, BUT THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE EASTSIDE. ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD IMPACT THE KLAMATH
FALLS TERMINAL; HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. OTHERWISE, TYPICAL DIURNAL BREEZES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING NEAR/AFTER SUNSET.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 856 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2025/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE AND INTO THE COQUILLE BASIN. THE MARINE STRATUS IN
THE COQUILLE BASIN SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, IT CLEAR AT THE
MOMENT, BUT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY SO TO WILL THE
BUILDING CUMULUS, FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS, THEN IN OTHER AREAS
IN NORTHERN CAL AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND COVERAGE AREA OF
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FIRST IN SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTH
WARNERS IN SOUTHEAST MODOC COUNTY. ISOLATED STORMS WILL TEND TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND EXPAND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN STORMS
WILL DIMINISH AND END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN EVENT IN TERMS OF STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. STORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. WE'LL TAKE A MORE DETAIL
LOOK AT THIS. -PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...09/12Z TAFS...ALONG THE COAST, MARINE STRATUS WILL
AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 18-20Z, THEN WILL LOWER YET
AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. INLAND, VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY 21-06Z) ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING YREKA, MOUNT
SHASTA, ALTURAS, KLAMATH FALLS AND LAKEVIEW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(10-15%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT MEDFORD. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. -BPN
MARINE...UPDATED 850 AM MONDAY, JUNE 9, 2025...AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE OVER CONTINUING FRESH NORTH SWELL, STEEP SEAS WILL BUILD
TODAY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LOCALLY VERY STEEP SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 20 NM OF SHORE BETWEEN CAPE BLANCO AND GOLD BEACH,
BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE, A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING DOES NOT
LOOK NECESSARY RIGHT NOW.
MODELS SUPPORT CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH RESTRENGTHENS. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED STEEP SEAS. WE WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF VERY STEEP SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK. -BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023-024-026.
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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