587
FXUS66 KMFR 120550
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1050 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
OVERVIEW:
THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A PROLONGED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
STARTING TODAY WHEN WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE MUCH--IF ANY--RAINFALL
CHANCES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER,
EVEN THE COASTAL AREAS ARE ONLY SITTING AT A 15-30 PERCENT CHANCE
AT RAINFALL MAINLY NORTH OF PORT ORFORD. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
DAYS WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS COULD CREATE PROBLEMS IF A FIRE
STARTS, BUT FORTUNATELY WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH OF A WIND THREAT
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL AFTERNOON
BREEZES.
FURTHER DETAILS:
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CAN BE DESCRIBED AS MOSTLY ZONAL THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH ONLY WEEK EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS PASSING
NEARBY. WE DO SEE MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND WASHINGTON, BUT THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP US OVERALL DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. IT REALLY BOILS DOWN TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TYPICAL WE
SEE LOW PWATS IN SUMMER, BUT PWAT STANDARD ANOMALIES THROUGH THIS
STRETCH ARE NOT ONLY NEAR NORMAL BUT IN MANY CASES 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS ESSENTIALLY
MEANS WE ARE GOING TO BE ABNORMALLY DRY THROUGH THIS STRETCH OF
DAYS WHEN WE ARE ALREADY NORMALLY DRY. FORTUNATELY FOR US, WE ARE
ONLY SEE TYPICAL DIURNAL BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS STAYING BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID, MANY
OF OUR SERVICE AREA ZONES FOR FIRE WEATHER ARE INDICATING ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE TO ABOVE THIS
VALUE. AND ONE OF OUR ZONES IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY AT THE 97TH
PERCENTILE FOR ERC VALUES. THESE VALUES ARE AHEAD OF TYPICAL MID
JUNE VALUES, SO EVALUATION OF WINDY DAYS MAY PROVE TO BE CRUCIAL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NOT SEEING POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DAYS. WE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT REALLY
TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SOME
OF THE HOTTER LOCATIONS ON THE WARMEST DAYS SITTING AROUND THE
MID 80S TO AROUND THE UPPER 80S. FOR PERSPECTIVE, THE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE FOR MEDFORD DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE LOW
80S.
AVIATION...12/06Z TAFS
MARINE STRATUS IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE OREGON COAST, WITH MVFR LEVELS EXPECTED OVER NORTH BEND
TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE IN THAT
STRATUS LAYER REACHING INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, SO
POSSIBLE TIMING HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS TAF FORECAST. ANY CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK DRY FRONT LOOKS TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO AREA TERMINALS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OTHER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. VFR LEVELS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS
OF MARINE STRATUS RETURNING TO THE OREGON COAST JUST BEYOND THIS
FORECAST. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM WEDNESDAY, JUNE 11, 2025
MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST OUT TO 20 NM
FROM SHORE SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPANDING, BUT REMAINING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE WAVES
WILL BE WIND DOMINATED. THE COMBINATION OF WAVES AND THE SHORT
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
-PETRUCELLI
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5
PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-376.
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