445
FXUS66 KMFR 121736
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1036 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2025
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION...12/18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT FOR MOST AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT NEAR
BROOKINGS, BUT IT IS BURNING OFF AND WILL JOIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE PUSH DURING THURSDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE
PATCHY UMPQUA VALLEY MVFR CEILINGS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW
A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS INTO TAFS AT 11Z.
ELSEWHERE, IT WILL REMAIN VFR. A WEAK DRY FRONT LOOKS TO BRING
GUSTY, BREEZY WINDS TO AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
BASED CUMULUS BUILDUPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
SHASTA VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTIES. -DW/HERMANSEN
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 500 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2025/
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A NEWLY INCREASED MODEL DISPARITY IN THE STRENGTH OF
A TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A MORE MODEST BUT
MENTIONABLE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WAVES TO FOLLOW NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, A LONG-DURATION OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING VARIATIONS ON NORMAL/SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH BREEZY,
DRY OR ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE
COAST THAT WILL INCLUDE COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S AT NIGHT TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE AFTERNOONS, AND AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS. INLAND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND 80S FOR THE VALLEYS.
DEW POINTS, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CASCADES, WILL BE
CONSISTENTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL. ALSO, BREEZY LATE DAY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. HIGH BASED CUMULUS
BUILDUPS OF MODEST VERTICAL EXTENT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY FROM THE SHASTA VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTIES. A DRY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A DEEPER, MORE EXTENSIVE PUSH OF STRATUS TO THE
COAST AND NORTH FACING SLOPES OF SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF PARTIAL CUMULUS CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANOTHER DRY FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A SHALLOWER PUSH OF STRATUS SOLELY TO THE COAST, BUT ALSO
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AREAWIDE. WITH WESTERLY FLOW, WE END
UP WITH SOME DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IN CONDITIONS, BUT THE BIG
PICTURE OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DRY WEATHER, AND BREEZY WINDS
CONTINUES.
THE 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW, WE HAVE HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
COAST. BUT, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAISING THE PROBABILITY OF
LIGHT, MEASUREABLE RAIN FOR THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY, AND A
LESSER POTENTIAL FOR ALSO INTRODUCING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
MENTION SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
VARIATIONS OF THE THEME OF WESTERLY FLOW ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW
BEYOND MONDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH IT BEING A HARDER TASK TO HUNT FOR
HINTS OF INSTABILITY.
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM THURSDAY, JUNE 12, 2025...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A MIX OF NORTHERLY WIND WAVE
AND FRESH SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOVERING AT OR JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
STEEPEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND OUT 30 NM FROM
SHORE, ESPECIALLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN VERY
STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY. A WEAK FRONT EARLY ON MONDAY IS LIKELY TO
DISRUPT THE PATTERN AND BRING IMPROVED CONDITIONS. -DW
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page