069
FXUS66 KMFR 130958
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2025
DISCUSSION
ON THURSDAY, WE OBSERVED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES, THE
MEDICINE LAKE REGION AND OVER PORTIONS OF KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE ARE EXITING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
SWINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS TO THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING AND WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A GENERALLY COOLER DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE CASCADES. THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE,
BUT WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS. MEDFORD'S
NORMAL HIGH IS 80F (OTHER NORMALS FOR TODAY: NORTH BEND, 63F;
ROSEBURG, 76F; KLAMATH FALLS AND MOUNT SHASTA 75F; ALTURAS, 77F;
AND MONTAGUE, 82F). BREEZES WILL BE GUSTIEST OVER THE EAST SIDE
AND IN NE CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON, SW INITIALLY, THEN SHIFTING
TO WNW BEFORE SUBSIDING AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT PEAK
WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE OVER THERE. ONCE AGAIN, MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER NE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MOST HI-RES CAMS ARE SHOWING
AT LEAST A SMALL PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS. AS SUCH, WE'VE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS (15-25% CHANCE) ACROSS NORTHERN
KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE A THUNDERSTORM
ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS EVENING AND ANY ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
ENDS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME MARINE CLOUDS AGAIN WEST OF THE
CASCADES.
WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCKED IN NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST, WE'LL
REMAIN IN THIS PATTERN OF UPPER TROUGHING NEAR AND JUST OFFSHORE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SUNNY DAYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR (EXCEPT FOR DAILY CUMULUS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS) AND OCCASIONAL MARINE CLOUDS AT THE COAST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE
MONDAY. OFFICIALLY, WE ARE CARRYING A DRY FORECAST WITH
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OF 10% OR LESS. BUT, SOME GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS NE SECTIONS
OF THE CWA IN THE PM/EVE. SINCE THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT, WE'LL
ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO RE-EVAULATE IF WE NEED TO ADD ANYTHING TO THE
FORECAST. -SPILDE
AVIATION...13/06Z TAFS
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE OREGON
COAST BUT HAVE EASED INLAND. VFR LEVELS CONTINUE OVER AREA
TERMINALS, WITH HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA. A MARINE PUSH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE OREGON COAST LATER THIS
EVENING, WITH CHANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS FILLING THE UMPQUA VALLEY AS
WELL. ANY CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
BEFORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN AT VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY RETURNING TO AREA
TERMINALS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM FRIDAY, JUNE 13, 2025
HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A MIX OF NORTHERLY WIND
WAVE AND FRESH SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND OUT 30 NM FROM SHORE, ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN VERY STEEP SEAS ARE FORECAST. A
WEAK FRONT EARLY ON MONDAY IS LIKELY TO DISRUPT THE PATTERN AND
BRING IMPROVED CONDITIONS. -SPILDE
FIRE WEATHER
LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ARE INDICATING MOSTLY
LOW TO MODERATE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
SEEING SEASONAL CURING OF GRASSES AND THIS HAS LED TO SOME MOSTLY
LOCAL SMALL SHORT-DURATION GRASS FIRES HERE AND THERE DURING THE
PAST WEEK. DESPITE THOUSANDS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FLASHES
EARLIER THIS WEEK (MON/TUE) EAST OF THE CASCADES, FIRE ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN LOW. ONE FIRE, THE WILLOW FIRE, IN TIMBER OVER THE
WARNERS IN THE MODOC NF, GREW TO 20 ACRES DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. WE ARE EXPECTING ENHANCED BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MODOC) WITH RH VALUES DOWN AROUND
15%, SO ANY FIRES ON THE LANDSCAPE IN THOSE AREAS COULD MAKE SHORT
RUNS IN THE WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY (2-7 PM). BUT, WITH THE
TROUGH PUSHING IN, RHS SHOULD TREND HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
OVERALL, EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
FAIRLY TYPICALLY AFTERNOON WINDS/RH VALUES AND A STEADY DRYING OF
FUELS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT THUNDER RISK IN NE SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN AGAIN MON. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
MAS/TAD
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