695
FXUS66 KMFR 142318
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
418 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...15/00Z TAFS
VFR AREAWIDE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN LOCAL IFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, LIFTING TO VFR BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES A 25%
CHANCE FOR IFR AT NORTH BEND TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND A 12% CHANCE
FOR MVFR AT ROSEBURG. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
IFR/MFR OUT OF THE NORTH BEND AND ROSEBURG TAFS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE
COAST WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30 KT. ACROSS INLAND AREAS, THE HIGHEST
GUSTS FOR TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED AROUND 20 KT.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 226 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2025/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IS SHOWING CLEARER SKIES WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND CIRRUS EAST AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS AFTERNOON'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S INLAND WITH 60S AT THE COAST. WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AROUND 10-15 MPH
FROM THE NORTHWEST/WEST.
FATHER'S DAY WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER. STARTING OFF, LOWS TONIGHT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. OVERALL MORNINGS WILL HAVE 40S
EAST, 50S WEST AND MID-40S AT THE COAST. THIS RANGE OF LOWS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGHS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH MORE EAST SIDE VALLEYS SEEING HIGHS
NEAR 80 DEGREES. ON THE WEST SIDE, THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEY,
ALONG WITH VALLEYS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
THE MID-/UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
ON MONDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A 3-6
DEGREE COOLDOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS ENOUGH TO BRING
A RAIN CHANCE (15-20%) TO MORE OF LAKE COUNTY AND VERY FAR EASTERN
KLAMATH COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN OFFSHORE AND THIS CHANCE CONTINUES CLOSER TO SHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM: THE REAL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COMES CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A LARGER TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHWARD. THE NEWER DATA IS
LEANING TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, ANYWHERE FROM 5-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS OF
RIGHT NOW. FIRST, THE GFS IS FAVORING A DEEPER LOW WITH THE LOW
BEING POSITIONED CLOSER TO OUR AREA. FOR THE EURO, THE POSITIONING
IS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OREGON. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THE DEEPER LOW
IN THE GFS WOULD MEAN MORE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEST OF THE CASCADES.
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE INCLUDES INCREASING THE POPS TO AREAS
SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO JOSEPHINE COUNTY. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST
TO INCREASE WINDS TO 15-25 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NEAR THE
SHASTA VALLEY. AS THIS IS A WEEK OUT, WE WILL CONTINUE LOOKING AT
THESE SCENARIOS THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM SATURDAY, JUNE 14, 2025...HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A MIX OF NORTHERLY WIND WAVE
AND STEEP FRESH SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. A WEAK FRONT EARLY ON MONDAY IS LIKELY TO
DISRUPT THE PATTERN AND BRING IMPROVED CONDITIONS THAT COULD LAST
INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. -SPILDE/HERMANSEN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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