410
FXUS66 KMFR 150515
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1015 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2025
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...15/06Z TAFS
VFR AREAWIDE WILL EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR/MVFR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTY TONIGHT, LIFTING TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES A 25% CHANCE FOR IFR AT NORTH
BEND TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND A 12% CHANCE FOR MVFR AT ROSEBURG.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE KEPT MENTION OF IFR/MFR OUT OF THE NORTH
BEND AND ROSEBURG TAFS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COAST WITH PEAK GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT. ACROSS INLAND AREAS, THE HIGHEST GUSTS FOR TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED AROUND 20 KT.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 819 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2025/
UPDATE...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM SATURDAY, JUNE 14, 2025...HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A MIX OF NORTHERLY WIND WAVE
AND STEEP FRESH SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH THROUGH TONIGHT. BRIEF, LOCALLY VERY STEEP SEAS
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE FROM
CAPE SEBASTIAN SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP. A WEAK FRONT EARLY ON MONDAY IS LIKELY TO
DISRUPT THE PATTERN AND BRING IMPROVED CONDITIONS THAT COULD LAST
INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2025/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IS SHOWING CLEARER SKIES WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND CIRRUS EAST AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS AFTERNOON'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S INLAND WITH 60S AT THE COAST. WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AROUND 10-15 MPH
FROM THE NORTHWEST/WEST.
FATHER'S DAY WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER. STARTING OFF, LOWS TONIGHT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. OVERALL MORNINGS WILL HAVE 40S
EAST, 50S WEST AND MID-40S AT THE COAST. THIS RANGE OF LOWS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGHS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH MORE EAST SIDE VALLEYS SEEING HIGHS
NEAR 80 DEGREES. ON THE WEST SIDE, THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEY,
ALONG WITH VALLEYS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
THE MID-/UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
ON MONDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A 3-6
DEGREE COOLDOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS ENOUGH TO BRING
A RAIN CHANCE (15-20%) TO MORE OF LAKE COUNTY AND VERY FAR EASTERN
KLAMATH COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN OFFSHORE AND THIS CHANCE CONTINUES CLOSER TO SHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM: THE REAL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COMES CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A LARGER TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHWARD. THE NEWER DATA IS
LEANING TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, ANYWHERE FROM 5-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS OF
RIGHT NOW. FIRST, THE GFS IS FAVORING A DEEPER LOW WITH THE LOW
BEING POSITIONED CLOSER TO OUR AREA. FOR THE EURO, THE POSITIONING
IS CLOSER TO NORTHERN OREGON. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THE DEEPER LOW
IN THE GFS WOULD MEAN MORE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEST OF THE CASCADES.
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE INCLUDES INCREASING THE POPS TO AREAS
SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO JOSEPHINE COUNTY. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST
TO INCREASE WINDS TO 15-25 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NEAR THE
SHASTA VALLEY. AS THIS IS A WEEK OUT, WE WILL CONTINUE LOOKING AT
THESE SCENARIOS THROUGH THE WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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