131
FXUS66 KMFR 301047
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
347 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2025
SHORT TERM
CURRENTLY MARINE STRATUS IS INTO COOS COUNTY
THROUGH MYRTLE POINT AND IS CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD. THIS
MORNING WILL BE WARMER FOR EVERYBODY WITH MOSTLY 50S AND 60S FOR
LOWS.
THE NEWEST DATA SUPPORTS MOST AREAS SEEING WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LARGEST JUMP IN TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY TO SEE MID- TO UPPER 90S IF
YOU'RE IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-90S THIS AFTERNOON! ALTHOUGH
THESE HIGHS ARE IN THE FORECAST, KEEP IN MIND THAT INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IMPACTING OUR AREA
COULD BRING MORE CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT WARMING. EITHER
WAY, THIS HEAT WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. PLEASE TAKE
THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS BY STAYING HYDRATED AND IN THE SHADE IF YOU
NEED TO BE OUTSIDE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
AN UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA, AND THIS WILL HELP BRING MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA
IN THE COMING DAYS. TODAY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE CASCADES TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS. THE POPS EXTEND INTO
EASTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF
THE RAIN COULD CLIP THIS AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY.
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 2-
4 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. I THINK THE
MOST ACTIVE TIME FRAME WILL BE BETWEEN 5-8 PM WITH PAINTBALL
ENSEMBLES FOCUSING ON CELLS IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND IN JACKSON AND
WESTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES. A MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO MOST OF
THE AREA FOR THE CONCERN OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER-
SIZE HAIL. THE MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOWER AND WITH PWATS NEARING 0.75"-1.00" ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, THIS COULD BRING A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, SO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT ARE
OUTDOORS BEFORE THIS PASSES.
GETTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST CAPES ARE PUTTING MORE OF
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE 200-500 J/KG RANGE,
HELPING SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 06Z SOUNDING
TONIGHT HAD 200 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE, SO THIS THINKING IS ON
TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS LONG AS A TRIGGER AND
MOISTURE REMAIN. AS OF RIGHT NOW, WE WILL BE WATCHING WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES BETWEEN 2-7 AM
TUESDAY FOR ANY SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR TRENDS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING,
AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TUESDAY STORMS AS WELL. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT WITH THE DAY AND POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT STORMS
BEFORE, LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. WE
WILL BE MONITORING HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER STAYS BEFORE CLEARER
SKIES HELP WARM TEMPERATURES AND PREPARE FOR THE NEXT ROUND WE'RE
EXPECTING TUESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO HEAR
MORE ABOUT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. -HERMANSEN
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL
THE INSTABILITY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO FAR EASTERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE TRENDED COOLER COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND, RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT COMING THROUGH IN
WESTERLY FLOW AND POSITIONED FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE POSITIVE TO THIS, IS THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND THUS NO HEAT
WAVES FOR THE HOLIDAY. THE FLIP SIDE TO THAT, HOWEVER, IS THAT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A DIFFERENT PATTERN/TRAJECTORY
OF THE LOW PRESSURE, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS,
BUT STAY TUNED AS WE GET PAST THE UPCOMING EVENT AND DETAILS ON
THE NEXT BECOME MORE CLEAR. /BR-Y
AVIATION...30/12Z TAFS
A MARINE LAYER IS IMPACTING THE COAST
WITH IFR CONDITIONS, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE IT CLEARS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON
AT THE COAST. INLAND SITES WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THIS
CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ROSEBURG WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO SEE ANY ACTIVITY, BUT BOTH
KMFR AND KLMT WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES (40-50%) AT BEING IMPACTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z, FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
JACKSON, KLAMATH, AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE
CASCADE CREST, YREKA, ASHLAND, AND KLAMATH FALLS.
-GUERRERO/HERMANSEN
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY, JUNE 30, 2025
MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND VERY STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG WINDS, AND VERY STEEP WIND-
DRIVEN SEAS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD, WHERE GALES ARE LIKELY.
MEANWHILE, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE
WATERS. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE SOUTHERN WATERS COULD STILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING CONDITIONS SOUTH
OF PORT ORFORD. -PETRUCELLI/HERMANSEN
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 330 AM PDT MONDAY, JUNE 30, 2025
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH BRINGS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA. THE RAIN LOOKS TO START AROUND 2-4 PM TODAY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MOVE NORTHWARD. THE MOST ACTIVE TIME FRAME
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 5-8 PM WITH PAINTBALL ENSEMBLES
FOCUSING ON CELLS IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND IN JACKSON AND WESTERN
KLAMATH COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS NEAR 0.75"-1.00".
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT A SLOWER FLOW WHILE THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH. HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS DUE TO THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND SLOWER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY MID TO LOWER LAYER, SO SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE MORE VIRGA IF IT CAN'T COMBAT THIS DRY
LAYER. DCAPES ARE NEARING 750-1,000 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS IN SOME STORMS AS WELL.
A MARGINAL RISK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS PRESENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, MEANING THAT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE DUE TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER, HIGHER LIGHTNING EFFICIENCY FOR FIRE STARTS
WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY, PLEASE SEE RFWMFR FOR MORE
DETAILS.
AS NOTED IN THE GENERAL FORECAST DISCUSSION, TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FORECAST CAPES ARE
PUTTING MORE OF SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE
200- 500 J/KG RANGE, HELPING SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE 06Z SOUNDING TONIGHT HAD 200 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE, SO THIS THINKING IS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS
AS LONG AS A TRIGGER AND MOISTURE REMAIN. AS OF RIGHT NOW, WE WILL
BE WATCHING WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 2-7 AM TUESDAY FOR ANY SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT.
SIMILAR TRENDS WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LIGHTING THREAT TUESDAY WILL BE IN SIMILAR AREAS BESIDES WEST
OF THE CASCADES, SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
THREAT OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACT SIMILAR TO TODAY'S WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGHER PWATS STILL IN
THE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY'S THREAT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD INTO LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES AND IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AT 15-25%. STORMS CHANCES
AROUND 10-20% COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. -HERMANSEN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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