739
FXUS66 KMFR 261216
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
516 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2025
DISCUSSION
IT WAS ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY DURING FRIDAY IN MODOC AND
SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK(NLDN)
PICKED UP ON ~775 CLOUD TO GROUND FLASHES WITH THE EARTH NETWORKS
TOTAL LIGHTNING NETWORK(ENTLN/ENI) PICKING UP ~4000. IN ANY CASE,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ALTHOUGH NOTABLY
LOWER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HREF IS PREDICTING ABOUT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON IN MODOC COUNTY, WHICH IS NOTABLY
LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS, STORM MOTION WILL BE MINIMAL, SO WE SHOULD
SEE SOME WETTING RAIN UNDER THESE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER(PWAT) VALUES AROUND 0.65 NEAR ALTURAS(KAAT).
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS IS LOOKING PRETTY SCATTERED RIGHT NOW, ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES ON THE SPC HREF
PROBABILITIES IS ABOUT 30 TO 50 PERCENT, WHICH IS STILL PRETTY
GOOD. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER ON SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MORE NOTABLE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS SOUTHERLY FLOW.
BEYOND THE NEXT FEW DAYS, IT SEEMS MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A
CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TO SEE THIS PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR ALMOST 7 DAYS STRAIGHT WITH PERSISTENT
TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ONE THING THAT DOES STAND
OUT RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED OFF OF THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF MEMBERS(~40%) ARE SHOWING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SOMEWHERE OVER OREGON WITH SOME MEMBERS
PUSHING CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH INTO PQR'S AREA AND 1 OR 2 AS
FARTHER EAST INTO BOI'S CWA. STILL A LOT TO SORT OUT, BUT IT WILL
BE SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
-SMITH
AVIATION...26/12Z TAFS
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS COVER THE COAST AND
COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH A STRONGER MARINE PUSH. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MARINE LAYER WILL STAY OUTSIDE OF ROSEBURG THIS MORNING.
THOSE LOWER CEILINGS WILL BUILD OFF BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN NORTH EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY STAY AWAY FROM TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHTNING NEAR KLMT IS ABOUT 15 PERCENT.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, JULY 26, 2025
SUB-ADVISORY
NORTH WINDS AND LOW SEAS OF 5 FT OR LESS, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE, WINDS WILL BRIEFLY APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BETWEEN PORT
ORFORD AND GOLD BEACH, 2 TO 20 NM FROM SHORE. WINDS THEN LOWER
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS MAY TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER AROUND TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. -SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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