188
FXUS66 KMFR 301119
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
419 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
DISCUSSION
THE TSUNAMI HAS TAKEN UP MOST OF OUR TIME THIS MORNING AND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE OREGON COAST. WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TSUNAMI WAVES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR MAIN WEB PAGE WEATHER.GOV/MFR FOR
DETAILS, ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IS ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE WAVES HAVE PASSED MULTIPLE OBSERVATION POINTS AND
TSUNAMI EVENT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY AROUND HAWAII.
OUTSIDE OF THE TSUNAMI, WE HAVE HAD SOME TIME TO LOOK AT
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS MORNING AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL SEE MORE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONE
THING THAT DOES STAND OUT ABOUT THESE STORMS ARE THE HIGHER BASES
WITH A LFC AROUND 9-10K FEET AGL OVER FORECAST POINTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THEREFORE, WE SHOULD SEE DRYISH THUNDERSTORMS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.7 INCHES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
LIKE MOST OF THE DAYS THIS WEEK, THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE
BEST EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT LOOKS
LIKE A FEW COULD SNEAK INTO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH
0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH EAST. THAT
IS USUALLY GOOD ENOUGH TO PUSH STORMS OFF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND
INTO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES RAPIDLY DROP OFF THE FARTHER ONE
MOVES WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HREF CONTINUES TO
HINT AT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO NORTHERN OREGON BY THURSDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER BOUT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ONE THING THAT DID CATCH OUR EYE THIS MORNING WAS THE
SREF PROBABILITY FOR 100 CLOUD TO GROUND FLASHES WITHIN 20KM OF
ANY POINT WAS AROUND 6-10% IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THOSE
PROBABILITIES DROPPED OFF FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THAT POINT.
HOWEVER, IT SEEMS MODELS STILL LIKE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN LAKE
AND KLAMATH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MORE ISOLATED AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER, A DEEPER WAVE AND COLD
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SWING INTO OREGON KICKING UP MORE
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE PUSHING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER.
-SMITH
AVIATION...30/12Z TAFS
MARINE STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE COAST,
BRINGING IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS. THIS LAYER LOOKS TO GENERALLY STAY
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR
VFR CEILINGS. AS THE WINDS CALM THIS EVENING, CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN
TO IFR OR LIFR LEVELS.
INLAND, VFR LEVELS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING TEMPORARILY LOWER CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITY UNDER ACTIVE STORM CELLS. THE MAIN RISKS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. SUBSTANTIAL NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
LOOKS UNLIKELY RIGHT NOW, BUT SOME LINGERING ISOLATED CELLS OVER
LAKE COUNTY ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE TONIGHT. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, JULY 30, 2025
A THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING WITH STEEP
SEAS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT
ORFORD THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF A THERMAL
TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN OF STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ620>622.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ORZ616.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ617.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ623>625.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ623>625.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ORZ617.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
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