720
FNUS76 KMFR 050158
FWSMFR
SPOT FORECAST FOR KELSEY PEAK...OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
658 PM PDT THU SEP 4 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, AND
DAYTIME MIXING MAY NOT START TO EFFECTIVELY MIX UNTIL ABOUT NOON
ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, MIXING WILL BE DEEP THROUGH PEAK HEATING
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. A SMALL CHANCE (~15-20%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THAT SAID,
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE EAST OF THE
WILDFIRE LOCATION. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 90
DEGREES FOR A HIGH, BUT A GENERAL COOLING TREND IS SLATED TO START
ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.19 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 2 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 8 TO
10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 12 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (PDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......PC CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR PC
WEATHER COV..... SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW
TSTM COV........ SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20
TEMP............63 67 71 78 81 83 86 88 87 88 85
RH..............66 61 57 54 50 48 44 42 42 43 46
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..2 1 1 1 2 2 2 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5 4 4 4 5 5 5 8 8 8 10
EYE LVL WND DIR.NE NE NE NE W W W W W W W
EYE LVL WND SPD.1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
EYE LVL WND GST.2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 5.1 5.1 5.1 3.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NE NE NE NE NE NE W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 10
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.19 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS AROUND 2 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................12 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
TIME (PDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0
CHC OF LTNG (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 10
TEMP............81 78 69 64 64 63 62 61 60 60 60 61
RH..............52 59 64 70 68 68 69 69 70 70 70 70
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
EYE LVL WND DIR.W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
EYE LVL WND SPD.2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
EYE LVL WND GST.4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W NW NW NW W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 3
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.9 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 2 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TIME (PDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......PC PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF LTNG (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............61 61 63 67 72 76 79 82 83 84 84 82
RH..............70 70 68 64 59 53 48 43 40 39 40 43
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW W W W SW SW SW W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 10
EYE LVL WND DIR.NW NW W W W SW SW SW W W W W
EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
EYE LVL WND GST.2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 4.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 8 8 8 12
FORECASTER...GUERRERO
REQUESTED BY...CURT SNOW
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2521357.0/MFR
.DELDT 09/04/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CURTIS.J.SNOW@ODF.OREGON.GOV
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