754
FXUS66 KMFR 112322
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
422 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)
A MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. INLAND TAFS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. LINGERING
SHOWERS IN/AROUND KLMT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY LIGHT
WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 256 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2025/
DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER IS SUPPORTING CONTINUING COOL TEMPERATURES
TODAY. ACTIVITY MAY WRAP AROUND THE LOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BRINGING RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO AREAS EAST
OF THE CASCADES. SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN HIGH AT 40-80% IN THIS
TIMEFRAME, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS REACHING WEST
SIDE CASCADES FOOTHILLS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BROAD CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES ARE 25-35% THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES IN NORTHEAST LAKE COUNTY TO SOUTHEAST KLAMATH
COUNTY. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY INTO THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH A
LATE NIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOLLOWS THE THE TROUGH, WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CURRENT SHOWER CHANCES ARE MODERATE (30-50%)
ACROSS OREGON COUNTIES. FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, WITH COOS,
CURRY, AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES POSSIBLY SEEING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. OTHER AREAS LOOK TO SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL FROM THIS
TROUGH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT INSPIRE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE
AMOUNTS, AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS PANELS SHOW OUTCOMES WHERE SHOWERS
COMPLETELY MISS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
BEYOND SUNDAY, METEOGRAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT GENERALLY DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. NBM PROBABILISTIC
DATA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS AN 80% FOR MEDFORD TO SEE A HIGH
ABOVE 90 DEGREES ON TUESDAY, BUT THAT PROBABILITY DROPS TO ~50%
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN GENERAL, DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO STAY
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT AVOID ANY HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS. -TAD
AVIATION...11/18Z TAFS...SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER KLAMATH, NORTHERN LAKE, AND
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES.
MVFR LEVELS PERSIST ALONG THE OREGON COAST, WITH IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS FORECAST TO RETURN TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS COULD FILL THE
UMPQUA VALLEY AS WELL. OTHER AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LOCALLY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS PRODUCE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2025...
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND WESTERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
TOTAL SEAS STAYING UNDER ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A PASSING TROUGH WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL WESTERLY SWELL AS WELL AS MARINE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY, THE FIRST SIGNS OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS A THERMAL TROUGH COULD BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
AREA WATERS. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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