537
FXUS66 KMFR 122135
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
235 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2025
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. UNDER
THIS RIDGE, THE WEEKEND WILL GET OFF TO A QUIET START.
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING LATE
SATURDAY AND PASSING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS LOOK LIKELY
FOR THE OREGON COAST AND INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THE
CASCADES AND ELEVATED EAST SIDE TERRAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE
SOME RAINFALL. JACKSON, SISKIYOU, AND MODOC COUNTIES WILL GENERALLY
SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL. THIS FRONT WILL
HELP TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER RIDGE FOLLOWS ON MONDAY, BRINGING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS COULD BE IN
THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S, WHILE EAST SIDE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 70S TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THERE ARE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ADDRESSED IN THE DISCUSSION
BELOW, THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO BE OVERALL UNEVENTFUL.
DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWING THE RIDGE, PREVENTING ADDITIONAL WARMING. NBM
PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOWS A DECREASE TO ~20% CHANCE FOR 90 DEGREE DAYS
FOR MEDFORD BEYOND TUESDAY WHILE YESTERDAY'S DISCUSSION HAD THESE
CHANCES AT ~50%. WHILE THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS, FOR THURSDAY AND
BEYOND, THERE'S UNCERTAINTY FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS GOING INTO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY STARTS TO DIVERGE INTO
FRIDAY, WHILE BOTH METEOGRAM GUIDANCE AND NBM TEMPERATURE RANGES
ALSO REFLECT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. LONG-TERM CLUSTERS GENERALLY
REFLECT SOME VERSION OF UPPER TROUGHING, BUT WITH NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EXACT SHAPE. THIS SEEMS LEAN TOWARDS
SEASONABLE TO COOL CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT THIS IS OFFERED WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT
BEST. -TAD
AVIATION...12/18Z TAFS
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
VALLEY, MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BETWEEN 18-21Z. THEN,
EXPECT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE INDICATE MAINLY VFR CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE (25%) FOR IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, INCLUDING AT ROSEBURG.
ELSEWHERE, INLAND EXPECT MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN VALLEY FOG FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2025
BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TOTAL SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL SUNDAY, WHEN AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED NORTHWEST SWELL. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY SUPPORT WIND-DRIVEN
STEEP SEAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2025
A
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST (60-80% CHANCE) SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOWER CHANCES (10-50%) INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OREGON. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
LOWER CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND WETTING RAIN (5-25%.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND FROM THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, A MODERATE TO STRONG WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY. MODERATE EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE RIDGETOP RECOVERIES. THEN, ON TUESDAY, WINDS DECREASE BUT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RIDGE TOP ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE RIDGETOP
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AND DRY
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES FOR INLAND AREA. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND LESS WARM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
TAD/MNF/CC
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