653
FXUS66 KMFR 131333
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
633 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2025
DISCUSSION
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MOST
OF THE MORNING, BREAKING UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THERE
ARE A FEW PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG INLAND.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LOW WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHWARD. WARMING
AND DRYING RETURNS ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S, WHILE EAST SIDE
AREAS ARE FORECAST TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
A BROADER AREA MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MODERATE RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING ONLY SLIGHT
COOLING, WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STILL BE A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A BRIEF, DRY BREAK WITH RIDGING BETWEEN WEAK
SYSTEMS IS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)
A MIX OF LIFR/IFR EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE LOWER ROGUE,
COQUILLE, CAMAS, AND LOWER UMPQUA. FOR KOTH, NORTH BEND, LIFR IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR BY 18Z THIS MORNING. BREAKS IN THE COASTAL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FOR INLAND SITES, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCLUDE
AREAS OF MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS. THIS
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, LINGERING FOR EASTERN LAKE COUNTY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. -DW
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2025
NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY THIS EVENING, AN APPROACHING LOW
WILL BRING SHOWERS, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A THERMAL TROUGH
MAY SUPPORT WIND-DRIVEN STEEP SEAS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2025
A
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WETTING RAIN IS
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST (60-80% CHANCE) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WITH LOWER CHANCES (10-50%) INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON. NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOWER CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION AND WETTING RAIN (5-25%.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND FROM THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, A MODERATE TO STRONG WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY. MODERATE EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE RIDGETOP RECOVERIES. THEN, ON TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS
DECREASE (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY EAST WINDS ON THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE, IN FAR NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY) BUT MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR
RIDGE TOP ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE RIDGETOP RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AND DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON
BREEZES FOR INLAND AREA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND
LESS WARM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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