785
FXUS66 KMFR 132137
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
237 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2025
DISCUSSION
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST,
ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A DAY OF COOL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES
LOOK TO GET THE MOST RAINFALL, WITH HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE AROUND
CAPE BLANCO. OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNIMPACTFUL. THERE
ARE SLIGHT CHANCES (15-25%) OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING AS
THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE GUIDING
CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES. EAST WINDS MAY BE WITH WEST SIDE VALLEYS
PEAKING IN THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S ON TUESDAY. EAST SIDE AREAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN IN THIS PERIOD AND ARE ADDRESSED IN THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.
AN UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO END NEXT
WEEK. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS TROUGH LOOK TO PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREAS. HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OR EAST OF
THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DETAILS FOR THIS
PERIOD REMAIN COARSE. BEYOND FRIDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN
OVERALL PATTERN. METEOGRAM GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES TEMPERATURES
STAYING AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS AND LONG-TERM
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS REMAIN SCRAMBLED. -TAD
AVIATION...13/18Z TAFS
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LIFTING TO MVFR WITH
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES AND INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LOWERING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH
A MIX OF LOW END VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR TERMINALS WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE'S PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (20-30%) ALONG THE COAST/COAST RANGES WESTWARD BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z TONIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AS WELL AFTER
09Z. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (10-15%) WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND
LINGER FOR EASTERN LAKE COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2025
NORTHWEST SWELL-INFLUENCED SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
AND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MARINE
SHOWERS AND INCREASED NORTHWEST SWELL TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. STEEP SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS
ALL WATERS FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WIND-BUILT UNSETTLED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BUILD ACROSS ALL WATERS, WITH
FORECAST GUSTS APPROACHING GALE SPEEDS OVER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO ON THURSDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT
APPROACHES. -TAD
FIRE WEATHER
UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 13,
2025...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FAIRLY ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ARE ALONG THE COAST RANGE
WESTWARD AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT ARRIVES AT THE COAST
LATER THIS EVENING, THEN MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT AND IS ALREADY EAST
OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES (FWZS) 624 AND 625 AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT AS THIS FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS THE UMPQUA BASIN AND ROGUE
VALLEY, BUT CHANCES ARE LOWER COMPARED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST
RANGE WESTWARD.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN AND A THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A PERIOD OF
EASTERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW AND BRING ABOUT A SHARP WARMING AND DRYING
TREND FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN
ON THE GOOD SIDE. IT'S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING THAT
RECOVERIES REALLY DROP IN TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RANGE.
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE RECOVERIES ARE LOWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING,
BUT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS EASTWARD, MORE AREAS WILL SEE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. CURRENT
GUIDANCE BOTTOMS OUT RH RECOVERIES IN THE 30-40% RANGE (DOWN TO 25%
FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS), AND HAS WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH.
THIS DOESN'T QUITE REACH CRITERIA FOR WATCH/WARNING PRODUCTS, AND
TYPICALLY IT NEEDS TO BE AT LEAST A FEW NIGHTS IN A ROW TO GET THE
RHS TO REALLY DROP LOW ENOUGH. AS SUCH, WE'LL BE MAINTAINING A
HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT IN THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST
(FWFMFR). MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER WITH
TEENS/LOW 20S COMMON ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MIN RHS WILL ALSO
TREND HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE AGAIN.
A WEAK AND DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES FOR
INLAND AREA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND LESS WARM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 5
AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
TAD/MNF
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