664  
FXUS66 KMFR 020001  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
501 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2025  
   
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 
 
   
AVIATION...(02/00Z TAFS)  
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ALONG  
THE COAST WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS NEAR BROOKINGS. AFTERNOON BREEZY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE ARE  
STILL SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND FLUCTUATING CEILINGS  
WILL CONTINUE. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE FOUND IN NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA AND NEAR AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.  
 
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND INLAND WITH SHOWERS ON AND OFF  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE  
MARINE STRATUS WILL ACT NEAR THE COOS COUNTY COAST TONIGHT, SO THE  
NEXT TAF PERIOD WILL HAVE MORE DETAILS ON THIS AREA. -HERMANSEN  
 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
/ISSUED 236 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2025/  
 
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...  
 
OVERVIEW:  
 
ROUNDS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, TOMORROW, AND  
TO A LESSER EXTENT ON FRIDAY. THESE CHANCES ARE CLOSELY TIED TO AN  
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL ESSENTIALLY PARK AROUND VANCOUVER  
ISLAND THROUGH THIS STRETCH PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THROUGH THIS STRETCH COMPARED  
TO NORMAL VALUES, AND WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS  
FOR THE EASTSIDE LATER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE  
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS NEAR NORMAL, BUT STILL EXPECTING  
COLD NIGHTS ON THE EASTSIDE. A DRY STRETCH LOOKS TO START FRIDAY AND  
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
FURTHER DETAILS:  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OFF SHORE FROM  
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS EJECTING PVA OVER THE  
FORECAST AREA, AND THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND  
LIFT/ENERGY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS  
THIS LOW REMAINS PARKED IN THIS GENERALLY VICINITY FOR THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL UNDER ISOLATED  
SHOWERS THESE NEXT TWO DAYS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH--IF ANY--LIGHTNING  
BUT WE COULD SEE VERY ISOLATED STRIKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY  
FRIDAY, THIS LOW WILL START TO PUSH ONSHORE AND START TO DEVELOP  
INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONSUMING MUCH OF THE CONUS BY SUNDAY.  
SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN MUCH ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCES  
CONFINED TO EAST/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS  
DYNAMICS SHIFT EASTWARD. IN FACT, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THESE  
POPS ON FRIDAY GET LOWERED OR WERE REMOVED COMPLETELY FROM THE NBM  
ON FUTURE RUNS.  
 
BARRING ANY CHANGES, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN DRY FRIDAY WITH  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE  
INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONE CAVEAT IS MONDAY WHEN A  
LOW SLIDES DOWN FROM CANADA. MODELS VARY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS  
LOW WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ACROSS THE REGION AS TO WHERE  
PRECIPITATION WILL END UP BEING. FOR EXAMPLE, THERE ARE STARK  
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT AND  
EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW. THAT SAID, NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE  
INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE WILL REMAIN DRY  
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
-GUERRERO  
 
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2025...THE  
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO  
EXPIRE DURING THURSDAY EVENING RATHER THAN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
CURRENTLY, SOUTH WINDS ARE DIMINISHING, BUT HIGH AND STEEP SWELL  
DOMINATED SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR A 12 TO 15 FT AT 13 SECONDS PEAK  
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING THURSDAY,  
BUT REMAIN STEEP THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH  
BUT THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD ALSO DECREASES FRIDAY INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY.  
 
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL TROUGH, NORTH WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE  
ADVISORY STRENGTH AND STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY  
NIGHT. -DW  
 
 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY  
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 
 
 
 
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