053  
FXUS66 KMFR 022216  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
316 PM PDT THU OCT 2 2025  
   
UPDATE
 
ADDED A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED TO ADD A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE EAST SIDE  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING AND SUBFREEZING  
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,  
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 305 PM PDT THU OCT 2 2025/  
 
DISCUSSION...THREE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE THE DRIVERS OF  
OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH  
THROUGH THAT TIME. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AREA. THE SECOND  
IS A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND  
THE THIRD WILL BE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE BROADEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM  
PERIOD WILL BE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY FROM  
THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. THIS INCLUDES A LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH AND  
NORTHEAST TO THE CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS (INCLUDING  
JACKSON, KLAMATH, AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES), WITH  
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR NORTHEAST DOUGLAS COUNTY.  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH SHOULD  
BE COMMON, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.  
MEANTIME, LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT THE  
COAST.  
 
WITH THE END OF DAY-TIME HEATING, THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
END LATER THIS EVENING. BUT, THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TRACK ACROSS  
OUR AREA. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN OVERNIGHT  
IN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL FAVOR LIGHT SHOWERS  
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD FROM  
SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY NEAR THE UMPQUA DIVIDE, AND PARTICULARLY  
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY NEAR ASHLAND.  
THE COAST AND MOST OF DOUGLAS COUNTY WILL JUST HAVE LOW CLOUDS TO  
CONTEND WITH FOR FRIDAY'S MORNING COMMUTE, THOUGH A 10%  
PROBABILITY MENTION FOR 0.01 INCHES OF DRIZZLY SPRINKLES FOR  
ROSEBURG THROUGH AROUND 9 AM ON FRIDAY DOES LOOK APPROPRIATE. ALL  
IN ALL, A DREARY START TO THE DAY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.  
 
DURING FRIDAY, THE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA AND THE  
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SHIFT IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER THE  
MORNING COMMUTE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FOR MODOC AND  
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHILE SUNNY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS GRADUALLY  
DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH  
CENTRAL OREGON.  
 
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT  
WITH A STRONGER DEPICTION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS  
HAS RESULTED IN THE NEED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE  
OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO COOS, DOUGLAS, AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTIES.  
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A SHALLOW POOL OF MOISTURE TO WORK  
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEAGER, BARELY MEASUREABLE  
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.  
MEANTIME, MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON  
COUNTIES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SPARSE ON THE EAST SIDE AND  
LEAD TO A CHILLY START TO SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND  
LOWER 30S EXPECTED. DOUGLAS COUNTY IS LIKELY TO HAVE LIFTING BUT  
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER LATER SATURDAY, WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE  
EXPECTED TO SEE INCREASING SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
LOWER CLOUDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN RIDGING FAR OFFSHORE  
AND THE TROUGH, WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A WARMING  
AND DRYING TREND SUNDAY AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY, POSSIBLY INTO MID-  
WEEK. AFTER A WEEK OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, INLAND HIGHS BY MONDAY  
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS ALSO INCLUDES LIGHT EASTERLY  
WINDS WITH BROOKINGS JOINING IN THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
MODEL UNCERTAINTY QUICKLY INCREASES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A MAJORITY  
OF GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLDING ON TO A WEAKENING RIDGE.  
ABOUT 20% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING SHOWERS TO THE COAST BY  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS TIME PROGRESSES INTO NEXT THURSDAY, THE  
PROBABILITY OF THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHING OUT THE RIDGE INCREASES.  
BUT, THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ARE IN QUESTION. THE  
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST  
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. -DW  
 
AVIATION...02/18Z TAFS...OVERALL, VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY, EXCEPT  
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, THEN  
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING. INLAND, AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED  
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORMING OVER THE  
VALLEYS. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. BEST  
PRECIP CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY.  
-SPILDE  
 
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2025...STEEP  
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE, BUT SHOULD REMAIN  
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE  
COAST SATURDAY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. STEEP,  
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. -SPILDE  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR  
ORZ029-031.  
 
CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR  
CAZ084-085.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS  
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 

 
 

 
 
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