309  
FXUS66 KMFR 031004  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
304 AM PDT FRI OCT 3 2025  
   
DISCUSSION  
THREE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE THE DRIVERS OF  
OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH  
THROUGH THAT TIME. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AREA. THE SECOND  
IS A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND  
THE THIRD WILL BE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH NORTH  
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL FAVOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS  
MORNING SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY NEAR  
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE, AND PARTICULARLY SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD FROM  
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY NEAR ASHLAND. THE COAST AND MOST OF  
DOUGLAS COUNTY WILL JUST HAVE LOW CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH FOR  
THIS MORNING'S COMMUTE. ALL IN ALL, A DREARY START TO THE DAY FOR  
MOST OF OUR AREA.  
 
LATER TODAY, THE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA AND THE  
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SHIFT IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER THE  
MORNING COMMUTE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FOR MODOC AND  
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHILE SUNNY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS GRADUALLY  
DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL  
OREGON.  
 
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A  
STRONGER DEPICTION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING  
COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS HAS  
RESULTED IN THE NEED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF  
LIGHT SHOWERS TO COOS, DOUGLAS, AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTIES. THIS  
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A SHALLOW POOL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH  
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEAGER, BARELY MEASUREABLE SHOWERS LATE  
TONIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. MEANTIME,  
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES.  
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SPARSE ON THE EAST SIDE AND LEAD TO A  
CHILLY START TO SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S  
EXPECTED. DOUGLAS COUNTY IS LIKELY TO HAVE LIFTING BUT PERSISTENT  
LOW CLOUD COVER LATER SATURDAY, WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO  
SEE INCREASING SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
FREEZING AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS  
EAST OF THE CASCADES, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN  
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS, AND  
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT PDXNPWMFR.  
 
LOWER CLOUDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN RIDGING FAR OFFSHORE  
AND THE TROUGH, WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A WARMING  
AND DRYING TREND SUNDAY AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY, POSSIBLY INTO MID-  
WEEK. AFTER A WEEK OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, INLAND HIGHS BY MONDAY  
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS ALSO INCLUDES LIGHT EASTERLY  
WINDS WITH BROOKINGS JOINING IN THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
MODEL UNCERTAINTY QUICKLY INCREASES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A MAJORITY  
OF GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLDING ON TO A WEAKENING RIDGE.  
ABOUT 20% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING SHOWERS TO THE COAST BY  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS TIME PROGRESSES INTO NEXT THURSDAY, THE  
PROBABILITY OF THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHING OUT THE RIDGE INCREASES.  
BUT, THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ARE IN QUESTION. THE  
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST  
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. -DW/BPN  
 
 
   
AVIATION...03/12Z TAFS  
MARINE STRATUS HAS SETTLED OVER THE OREGON  
COAST, BRINGING IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAINLY TO THE  
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED LATE THIS  
MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR ARE LIKELY TO  
RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  
 
AREA VALLEYS AND BASINS MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR  
VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH AREA OF TERRAIN  
OBSCURATIONS. ANY AREAS OF LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT  
LATE THIS MORNING, WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF  
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AND  
BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN  
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. -BPN/TAD  
 
 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2025  
SEAS WILL  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY  
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A  
THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY WITH  
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SUNDAY NIGHT, STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS  
WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
-SPILDE/BPN  
 
 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR  
ORZ029-031.  
 
CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR  
CAZ084-085.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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