696  
FXUS66 KMFR 031748  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
1048 AM PDT FRI OCT 3 2025  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...03/18Z TAFS
 
IFR/LIFR ALONG THE COAST WILL BREAK  
UP WITH VFR DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CONDITIONS  
INCLUDING IFR/LIFR WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE LIGHT  
RAIN/DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND GOLD BEACH/PORT ORFORD  
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF  
MODOC COUNTY (NEAR ALTURAS) AND ALSO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY EAST  
OF LAKEVIEW WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER  
OFF TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.  
ELSEWHERE INLAND, ANY CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS  
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL REDEVELOP  
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE  
CASCADES WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE  
UMPQUA DIVIDE. FOGGY AREAS COULD DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS  
OF NORCAL AND OVER THE EAST SIDE WHERE IT HAS RECENTLY RAINED.  
-SPILDE  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 900 AM PDT FRI OCT 3 2025/  
 
DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO NUDGE UP THE  
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES WITH A  
WEAK TROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,  
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED TO CREATING MOSTLY  
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKY COVER.  
 
FIRST, WITH THE PRECEDING TROUGH CONTINUING TO SHIFT  
SOUTHEASTWARD, SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED UPON MODOC COUNTY.  
SECONDARILY, A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER  
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SISKIYOU, AND  
LAKE COUNTIES.  
 
WEST SIDE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING, THEN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL PICK UP STEAM SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING,  
OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK  
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, AT  
LEAST FOR THE COAST. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE, WE WILL  
LOOK TO MORE PRECISELY UPDATE THE PROBABILITY OF AN INLAND TRACK  
THAT WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO OUR AREA VERSUS THE  
CONTINGENT OF SOLUTIONS THAT ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE OR EVEN  
RETROGRADE THE TROUGH FARTHER OFFSHORE.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT FRI OCT 3 2025/  
 
DISCUSSION...THREE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE THE DRIVERS OF  
OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH  
THROUGH THAT TIME. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AREA. THE SECOND  
IS A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND  
THE THIRD WILL BE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA ON FRIDAY AND THE  
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SHIFT IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER THE  
MORNING COMMUTE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FOR MODOC AND  
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHILE SUNNY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS GRADUALLY  
DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL  
OREGON.  
 
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A  
STRONGER DEPICTION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING  
COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS HAS  
RESULTED IN THE NEED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF  
LIGHT SHOWERS TO COOS, DOUGLAS, AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTIES. THIS  
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A SHALLOW POOL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH  
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEAGER, BARELY MEASUREABLE SHOWERS LATE  
TONIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. MEANTIME,  
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES.  
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SPARSE ON THE EAST SIDE AND LEAD TO A  
CHILLY START TO SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S  
EXPECTED. DOUGLAS COUNTY IS LIKELY TO HAVE LIFTING BUT PERSISTENT  
LOW CLOUD COVER LATER SATURDAY, WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO  
SEE INCREASING SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
FREEZING AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS  
EAST OF THE CASCADES, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN  
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS, AND  
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT PDXNPWMFR.  
 
LOWER CLOUDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN RIDGING FAR OFFSHORE  
AND THE TROUGH, WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A WARMING  
AND DRYING TREND SUNDAY AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY, POSSIBLY INTO MID-  
WEEK. AFTER A WEEK OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, INLAND HIGHS BY MONDAY  
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS ALSO INCLUDES LIGHT EASTERLY  
WINDS WITH BROOKINGS JOINING IN THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
MODEL UNCERTAINTY QUICKLY INCREASES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A MAJORITY  
OF GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLDING ON TO A WEAKENING RIDGE.  
ABOUT 20% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING SHOWERS TO THE COAST BY  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS TIME PROGRESSES INTO NEXT THURSDAY, THE  
PROBABILITY OF THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHING OUT THE RIDGE INCREASES.  
BUT, THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ARE IN QUESTION. THE  
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST  
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. -DW/BPN  
 
AVIATION...03/12Z TAFS...MARINE STRATUS HAS SETTLED OVER THE OREGON  
COAST, BRINGING IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAINLY TO THE  
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED LATE THIS  
MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR ARE LIKELY TO  
RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  
 
AREA VALLEYS AND BASINS MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR  
VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH AREA OF TERRAIN  
OBSCURATIONS. ANY AREAS OF LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT  
LATE THIS MORNING, WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF  
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AND  
BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN  
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. -BPN/TAD  
 
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2025...SEAS WILL  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY  
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A  
THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY WITH  
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SUNDAY NIGHT, STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS  
WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
-SPILDE/BPN  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR  
ORZ029-031.  
 
CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR  
CAZ084-085.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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