824  
FXUS66 KMFR 032213  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
313 PM PDT FRI OCT 3 2025  
   
DISCUSSION  
A SEASONABLY WEAK AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE  
THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  
THIS INCLUDES CHILLY MORNINGS ON THE EAST SIDE, CLOUDS ON THE WEST  
SIDE, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FOR THE COAST AND ACROSS DOUGLAS  
COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
WITH A DRYING TREND, AND WARMING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES.  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DAYS OF GRADUAL  
TRANSITION WITH THE APPROACH OF A BROAD TROUGH. THE TROUGH LOOKS  
TO BE THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA.  
 
A FEW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE  
CASCADES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN MODOC COUNTY.  
MEANTIME, THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN OREGON  
AND WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL  
PRODUCE AN INFLUX OF LOW CLOUDS INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT,  
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING THEN  
INLAND ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN  
WHILE MAKING LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS DURING SATURDAY. THIS WILL  
CONTINUE THE SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE WITH CLOUDY  
SKIES ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE WILL HAVE A  
CLOUDY BUT DRY SATURDAY. MEANTIME, EAST SIDE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH  
TONIGHT, THEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FOR THE SATURDAY DAY-TIME  
HOURS.  
 
THE FREEZE WATCH FOR EAST SIDE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
MORNING HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. THIS WILL BE THE  
ONLY FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH THIS BEING  
CONSIDERED A SEASON ENDING EVENT AND NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES NOW  
APPROACHING FREEZING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY EACH  
MORNING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THE  
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING, BUT THE WARMEST PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA WILL BE NEAR FREEZING. ON THE COLDEST MORNING OF THIS  
EPISODE, A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.  
 
EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE LIGHT, WITH WARM  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HISTORICALLY HAVE  
DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING WHERE WOBBLY, BROAD, CLOSED UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGHS WILL TRACK. THE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TROUGH IS  
NO EXCEPTION, WITH THE ADDITIONAL COMPLICATING FACTOR OF A SECOND  
TROUGH ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE  
IN THE WEEK. THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY PERIOD HAS THE HIGHEST  
PROBABILITY OF BEING CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A  
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH A LOW, BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT  
SHOWERS FOR THE COAST. BY FRIDAY, DAY 7, AND EVEN MORE SO FOR NEXT  
WEEKEND, AN EPISODE OF COOL, WET WEATHER IS AN INCREASING  
PROBABILITY. -DW  
 
 
   
AVIATION...03/18Z TAFS  
IFR/LIFR ALONG THE COAST WILL BREAK  
UP WITH VFR DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CONDITIONS  
INCLUDING IFR/LIFR WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE LIGHT  
RAIN/DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND GOLD BEACH/PORT ORFORD  
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF  
MODOC COUNTY (NEAR ALTURAS) AND ALSO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY EAST  
OF LAKEVIEW WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER  
OFF TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.  
ELSEWHERE INLAND, ANY CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS  
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL REDEVELOP  
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE  
CASCADES WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE  
UMPQUA DIVIDE. FOGGY AREAS COULD DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS  
OF NORCAL AND OVER THE EAST SIDE WHERE IT HAS RECENTLY RAINED.  
-SPILDE  
 
 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2025  
NORTH WINDS  
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS  
ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS LATE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,  
ALONG WITH STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE  
 
 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029-031.  
 
CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ084-085.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT  
SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 
 
 
 
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