294  
FXUS66 KMFR 040522  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
1022 PM PDT FRI OCT 3 2025  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS  
 
   
DISCUSSION  
A SEASONABLY WEAK AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE  
THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  
THIS INCLUDES CHILLY MORNINGS ON THE EAST SIDE, CLOUDS ON THE WEST  
SIDE, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FOR THE COAST AND ACROSS DOUGLAS  
COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
WITH A DRYING TREND, AND WARMING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES.  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DAYS OF GRADUAL  
TRANSITION WITH THE APPROACH OF A BROAD TROUGH. THE TROUGH LOOKS  
TO BE THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA.  
 
A FEW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE  
CASCADES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN MODOC COUNTY.  
MEANTIME, THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN OREGON  
AND WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL  
PRODUCE AN INFLUX OF LOW CLOUDS INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT,  
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING THEN  
INLAND ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN  
WHILE MAKING LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS DURING SATURDAY. THIS WILL  
CONTINUE THE SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE WITH CLOUDY  
SKIES ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE WILL HAVE A  
CLOUDY BUT DRY SATURDAY. MEANTIME, EAST SIDE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH  
TONIGHT, THEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FOR THE SATURDAY DAY-TIME  
HOURS.  
 
THE FREEZE WATCH FOR EAST SIDE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
MORNING HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. THIS WILL BE THE  
ONLY FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH THIS BEING  
CONSIDERED A SEASON ENDING EVENT AND NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES NOW  
APPROACHING FREEZING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY EACH  
MORNING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THE  
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING, BUT THE WARMEST PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA WILL BE NEAR FREEZING. ON THE COLDEST MORNING OF THIS  
EPISODE, A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.  
 
EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE LIGHT, WITH WARM  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HISTORICALLY HAVE  
DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING WHERE WOBBLY, BROAD, CLOSED UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGHS WILL TRACK. THE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TROUGH IS  
NO EXCEPTION, WITH THE ADDITIONAL COMPLICATING FACTOR OF A SECOND  
TROUGH ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE  
IN THE WEEK. THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY PERIOD HAS THE HIGHEST  
PROBABILITY OF BEING CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A  
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH A LOW, BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT  
SHOWERS FOR THE COAST. BY FRIDAY, DAY 7, AND EVEN MORE SO FOR NEXT  
WEEKEND, AN EPISODE OF COOL, WET WEATHER IS AN INCREASING  
PROBABILITY. -DW  
 
 
   
AVIATION...04/06Z TAFS  
MARINE STRATUS IS SETTLING IN ALONG THE  
OREGON COAST TO START THE TAF PERIOD. IFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT AT  
NORTH BEND, BUT PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE  
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS LOOK TO LIFT  
TO VFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES OF LOWERING AGAIN TOWARDS  
THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD OR EARLY IN THE NEXT.  
 
FOR INLAND AREAS, MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY  
OVERNIGHT AND COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE  
LIFTING OR CLEARING. OTHER AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNDER  
MIDLEVEL CEILINGS OR CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -TAD  
 
 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2025  
NORTH WINDS  
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS  
ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS LATE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,  
ALONG WITH STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE  
 
 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029-031.  
 
CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ084-085.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT  
SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 
 
 
 
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