791  
FXUS66 KMFR 041806  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
1106 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2025  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...04/18Z TAFS
 
IFR CEILINGS ARE BREAKING UP ALONG THE  
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING, BUT COULD HOLD ON FOR  
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING. NORTH BEND AND ROSEBURG WILL BOTH LIKELY SEE THE LOWER  
CEILINGS (IFR/LIFR) RETURN THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT, BUT LOW-LEVEL  
NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND THIS MAY CAUSE SOME OF THESE CEILINGS TO  
ERODE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY, VFR RETURNS BY EARLY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
FARTHER INLAND, VFR PREVAILS THOUGH SOME CEILINGS ARE STILL LOW  
ENOUGH TO OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN. VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY, THOUGH PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AND LAST FOR A FEW HOURS IN  
THE VALLEYS/BASINS OF NORCAL AND OVER THE EAST SIDE WHERE IT HAS  
RECENTLY RAINED, PERHAPS EVEN AT KLAMATH FALLS. -SPILDE  
 

 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 350 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2025/  
 
DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY WEAK AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE  
THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS  
INCLUDES CHILLY MORNINGS ON THE EAST SIDE, CLOUDS ON THE WEST  
WIDE, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FOR THE COAST AND ACROSS DOUGLAS  
COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
WITH A DRYING TREND, AND WARMING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES.  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DAYS OF GRADUAL  
TRANSITION WITH THE APPROACH OF A BROAD TROUGH. THE TROUGH LOOKS  
TO BE THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA.  
 
A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES  
THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT  
WILL WEAKEN WHILE MAKING LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS TODAY. THIS WILL  
CONTINUE THE SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE  
UMPQUA DIVIDE, WHILE THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE WILL HAVE A CLOUDY  
BUT DRY DAY. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE INCREASING MID-  
LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  
 
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS  
MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW  
FREEZING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND  
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR EAST SIDE  
VALLEYS, WITH THIS BEING CONSIDERED A SEASON ENDING EVENT AND  
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES NOW APPROACHING FREEZING. FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY EACH MORNING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY. ON THE COLDEST MORNING OF THIS EPISODE, A HARD FREEZE IS  
EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.  
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING TO OUR SOUTH, EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND  
CLEAR SKIES. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF  
OF ALASKA BEFORE DIGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.  
MODELS HISTORICALLY HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING WHERE  
WOBBLY, BROAD, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL TRACK. THE  
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TROUGH IS NO EXCEPTION. THE WEDNESDAY  
INTO THURSDAY PERIOD HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEING  
CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH  
A LOW, BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE COAST. BY  
FRIDAY, DAY 7, AND EVEN MORE SO FOR NEXT WEEKEND, AN EPISODE OF  
COOL, WET WEATHER IS AN INCREASING PROBABILITY. -DW/BPN  
 
AVIATION...04/12Z TAFS...MARINE STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG, TERRAIN  
OBSCURATION, AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SETTLED IN ALONG THE COAST AND  
COASTAL RANGES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE  
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING AT KOTH (NORTH BEND). IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS  
IN THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, AND IMPROVE TO  
MVFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR BY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER AGAIN THIS  
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  
 
FOR INLAND AREAS, MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY,  
INCLUDING KRBG (ROSEBURG), THIS MORNING AND COULD LINGER INTO  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE LIFTING OR CLEARING. OTHER AREAS  
LOOK TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNDER MIDLEVEL CEILINGS OR CLEAR SKIES.  
-TAD/BPN  
 
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2025...NORTH  
WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALONG THE  
COAST. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, ALONG WITH  
STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
-SPILDE/BPN  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT  
SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 

 
 

 
 
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