623  
FXUS66 KMFR 042136  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
236 PM PDT SAT OCT 4 2025  
   
DISCUSSION  
DESPITE THE MINIMAL RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR, SURFACE  
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW HUNDRETHS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND  
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH  
THE AREA IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT ASIDE FROM THE LIGHT  
SHOWERS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA  
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY COME TO AN  
END LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS  
TONIGHT. WE'LL TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS  
THROUGH AS THIS OFFSHORE FLOW (EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS) DEVELOPS  
TONIGHT, PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS, BUT ALSO ACROSS  
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND MUCH OF LAKE COUNTY. THIS SHOULD KEEP  
TEMPERATURES UP SOME ACROSS THE THE CHRISTMAS VALLEY TONIGHT, BUT WE  
STILL EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES EACH MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY,  
WITH EVEN THE WARMER AREAS STILL SEEING LOWS NEAR FREEZING. ON THE  
COLDEST MORNING OF THIS EPISODE, A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH  
OF THE EAST SIDE ON MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD MORNINGS  
AND THAT WE'VE REACHED THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES  
AVERAGE FREEZING, WE'LL FOREGO ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE WARNINGS FOR  
THE SEASON. AFTER A COOL, CLOUDY START FOR MANY ON SUNDAY MORNING,  
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR UNDER A DRYING AIR MASS AND INCREASING EAST  
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WE'LL SEE A WARMING TREND WEST OF THE CASCADES  
BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY'S HIGHS, WITH SIMILAR TO A FEW  
DEGREES WARMER FOR THE EAST SIDE. THE CHETCO EFFECT WILL SET UP ON  
SUNDAY, BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE COAST WITH BROOKINGS  
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
MEANWHILE, WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGHS ALSO REACH INTO THE  
MID/UPPER 70S WHILE THE EAST SIDE HOVERS IN THE 55-65 DEGREE RANGE  
(STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).  
 
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,  
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH THERE  
COULD BE POCKETS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS WEST OF THE  
CASCADES, EVEN THE MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO BE NON-EXISTENT AND  
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND  
WARMER AGAIN ON MONDAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES COMPARED TO SUNDAY'S  
VALUES FOR ALL AREAS, SO EVEN THE EAST SIDE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES  
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS (UPPER 60S/LOW 70S). THE CHETCO EFFECT  
WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS  
AREA AND EVEN AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO  
THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. RINSE AND REPEAT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY, THOUGH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY  
NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST ON TUESDAY,  
WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED OVER WEST SIDE VALLEYS. MEANWHILE,  
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EAST OF THE CASCADES ON  
TUESDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW  
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BEFORE DIGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE  
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. MODELS HISTORICALLY HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH  
DETERMINING WHERE WOBBLY, BROAD, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL  
TRACK, AND THIS TROUGH IS NO EXCEPTION. THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY  
PERIOD HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEING CHARACTERIZED BY  
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH A LOW, BUT HIGHEST  
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE COAST. BY FRIDAY, DAY 7, AND  
EVEN MORE SO FOR NEXT WEEKEND, AN EPISODE OF COOL, WET WEATHER IS AN  
INCREASING PROBABILITY. /BR-Y  
 
 
   
AVIATION...04/18Z TAFS  
IFR CEILINGS ARE BREAKING UP ALONG THE  
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING, BUT COULD HOLD ON FOR  
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING. NORTH BEND AND ROSEBURG WILL BOTH LIKELY SEE THE LOWER  
CEILINGS (IFR/LIFR) RETURN THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT, BUT LOW-LEVEL  
NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND THIS MAY CAUSE SOME OF THESE CEILINGS TO  
ERODE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY, VFR RETURNS BY EARLY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
FARTHER INLAND, VFR PREVAILS THOUGH SOME CEILINGS ARE STILL LOW  
ENOUGH TO OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN. VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY, THOUGH PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AND LAST FOR A FEW HOURS IN  
THE VALLEYS/BASINS OF NORCAL AND OVER THE EAST SIDE WHERE IT HAS  
RECENTLY RAINED, PERHAPS EVEN AT KLAMATH FALLS. -SPILDE  
 
 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2025  
A THERMAL  
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL CAUSE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS  
OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND  
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, THOUGH ALL AREAS WILL  
HAVE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL  
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING FROM EAST TO  
WEST OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS  
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT NORTH WINDS AND STEEP  
SEAS COULD RETURN WEDNESDAY. -SPILDE  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2025  
A  
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND  
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST WINDS OVER THE UPPER  
SLOPES AND RIDGES BEGINNING TONIGHT. HOWEVER, RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT  
SHOULD BE GOOD (80-100%) GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE/RAINFALL. FUELS  
HAVE ALSO MODERATED SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN MODERATE  
AND/OR LOW FIRE DANGER. WE DO EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE  
LANDSCAPE SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT IN  
THE IN THE 15-25% RANGE. AND, WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUING  
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE UPPER SLOPES/RIDGES, WEATHER  
CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  
DESPITE THIS, WE DON'T THINK FUELS WILL RETURN TO LEVELS NECESSARY  
FOR RFW. WE'LL HEADLINE THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST TO  
ENHANCE THE MESSAGE THAT IT WILL TURN DRIER INTO MID NEXT WEEK.  
CONFIDENCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY IS QUITE LOW WITH MANY POSSIBLE  
SCENARIOS, THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT LEAN IN FAVOR OF BREEZY, COOLER  
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. -SPILDE  
 
 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5  
AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 
 
 
 
 
MNF/MAS  
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