949  
FXUS66 KMFR 051732  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
1032 AM PDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
   
DISCUSSION  
/ISSUED 311 AM PDT SUN OCT 5 2025/ WE'LL TRANSITION  
TO A PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEGINNING TODAY AS  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST, AND OFFSHORE  
FLOW (EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS) DEVELOPS, PEAKING TONIGHT BUT  
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,  
PRIMARILY IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS, BUT ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN KLAMATH  
COUNTY AND MUCH OF LAKE COUNTY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP  
SOME ACROSS THE THE CHRISTMAS VALLEY THIS MORNING, BUT WE STILL  
EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY, WITH  
EVEN THE WARMER AREAS STILL SEEING LOWS NEAR FREEZING. ON THE  
COLDEST MORNING OF THIS EPISODE, A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR  
MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE ON MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD  
MORNINGS AND THAT WE'VE REACHED THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN NORMAL LOW  
TEMPERATURES AVERAGE FREEZING, WE'LL FOREGO ANY ADDITIONAL FREEZE  
WARNINGS FOR THE SEASON. AFTER A COOL, CLOUDY START, SKIES WILL  
QUICKLY CLEAR TODAY UNDER A DRYING AIR MASS AND INCREASING EAST TO  
NORTHEAST WINDS. WE'LL SEE A WARMING TREND WEST OF THE CASCADES  
BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH SIMILAR TO A FEW  
DEGREES WARMER FOR THE EAST SIDE. THE CHETCO EFFECT WILL BRING  
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE COAST WITH BROOKINGS ALREADY 10 DEGREES  
WARMER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND FORECAST TO  
REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, WEST SIDE  
VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGHS ALSO REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WHILE  
THE EAST SIDE HOVERS IN THE 55-65 DEGREE RANGE (STILL ABOUT 10  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).  
 
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,  
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH THERE  
COULD BE POCKETS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS WEST OF  
THE CASCADES, EVEN THE MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO BE NON-EXISTENT  
AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND  
WARMER AGAIN ON MONDAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES COMPARED TO SUNDAY'S  
VALUES FOR ALL AREAS, SO EVEN THE EAST SIDE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES  
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS (UPPER 60S/LOW 70S). THE CHETCO EFFECT  
WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS  
AREA AND EVEN AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO ARE FORECAST TO REACH  
INTO THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. RINSE AND REPEAT FOR MONDAY NIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN  
MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST ON  
TUESDAY, WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED OVER WEST SIDE VALLEYS.  
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EAST OF  
THE CASCADES ON TUESDAY. /BR-Y  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW  
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BEFORE DIGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE  
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. MODELS HISTORICALLY HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH  
DETERMINING WHERE WOBBLY, BROAD, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL  
TRACK, AND THIS TROUGH IS NO EXCEPTION. THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY  
PERIOD HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEING CHARACTERIZED BY  
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH A LOW, BUT HIGHEST  
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE COAST. OF NOTE, THE NBM  
BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE  
VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ACROSS THE EC AND GFS SUITES DO  
NOT BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST OR ANY OTHER PART  
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST 24 HOURS LATER. THE FORECAST  
WAS TRIMMED BACK, BUT SOME RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN  
DUE TO CURRENT RESTRAINTS ON THE FORECASTING PROCESS. MOST LIKELY,  
THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL NOT  
ARRIVE IN THE AREA UNTIL THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE  
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN STICKS AROUND PRODUCING COOLER  
AND WETTER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -BPN  
 
 
   
AVIATION...05/18Z TAFS  
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS LINGER  
AROUND THE UMPQUA BASIN BELOW THE DRIER EAST WINDS ALOFT. THAT DRIER  
AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES  
WILL CLEAR OUT THEREAFTER. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD POPPING UP  
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND 4000 FEET, ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD STAY  
SCATTERED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS.  
 
-SMITH  
 
 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2025  
A THERMAL  
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY INTO MONDAY, WITH THE  
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, AND ALL OTHER  
AREAS EXPERIENCING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. THE THERMAL  
TROUGH WEAKENS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING FROM EAST TO  
WEST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY, BUT NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS COULD RETURN FOR  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2025  
A  
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND  
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST WINDS OVER THE UPPER  
SLOPES AND RIDGES BEGINNING TONIGHT. HOWEVER, RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT  
SHOULD BE GOOD (80-100%) GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE/RAINFALL. FUELS  
HAVE ALSO MODERATED SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN MODERATE  
AND/OR LOW FIRE DANGER. WE DO EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE  
LANDSCAPE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BOTTOMING  
OUT IN THE IN THE 15-25% RANGE. AND, WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS  
CONTINUING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE UPPER SLOPES/RIDGES,  
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS DURING THIS TIME  
PERIOD. EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT NEAR CRITICAL VALUES  
OVER THE RIDGELINES, BUT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN MODERATE. MONDAY  
NIGHT, RIDGETOP RECOVERIES WILL TREND POORER, BUT WITH WEAKER WINDS.  
DESPITE THESE DRY CONDITIONS, WE DON'T THINK FUELS WILL RETURN TO  
LEVELS NECESSARY FOR RFW. WE'LL HEADLINE THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING  
FORECAST TO ENHANCE THE MESSAGE THAT IT WILL TURN DRIER INTO MID  
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY IS QUITE LOW WITH MANY  
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS, THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT LEAN IN FAVOR OF BREEZY,  
COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.  
-SPILDE/BPN  
 
 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY  
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab OR Page
The Nexlab CA Page
Main Text Page