987  
FXUS66 KMFR 052122  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
222 PM PDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRIER EAST FLOW HELPED CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND WE'LL SEE THESE DRIER WINDS PERSIST INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC WILL BUILD INTO THE  
NORTHWEST BY MONDAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING EVEN  
WARMER. MEDFORD WILL REVISIT THE 80 DEGREE MARK WITH A HIGH OF 83  
WITH BROOKINGS IN THE LOWER 80'S DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW. THESE  
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER AS OUR AVERAGE  
HIGH AT THE AIRPORT IS AROUND THE UPPER 70'S, SO JUST 5 DEGREES  
WARMER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
TUESDAY SHOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH 80 DEGREES BECOMING MORE  
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER, WIND FLOW BEGINS TO SWITCH UP TOWARDS THE END  
OF TUESDAY, SO THE COAST SHOULD SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE  
TO ONSHORE FLOW.  
 
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT  
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER  
TEMPERATURES AND A 15% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG OUR NORTHERN  
PORTION OF COASTLINE NEAR NORTH BEND AND FLORENCE. SOME LOCATIONS  
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TREND 10 DEGREES LOWER.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW  
JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. DATA SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A LOW 10 TO  
20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN OUR REGION,  
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REALLY SEEM TO STRUGGLE WHERE TO PLACE  
IT OR IF TO PLACE IT AT ALL.  
 
EVENTUALLY THIS LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL  
INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER,  
THERE ARE MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT KEEP US PRETTY DRY ONCE THIS  
LOW PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARDS, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST  
BEYOND THURSDAY IS PRETTY LOW. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION  
PEAKS AT ABOUT 80% SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE COAST, SO THAT AREA  
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND.  
 
-SMITH  
 

 
   
AVIATION...05/18Z TAFS
 
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS LINGER  
AROUND THE UMPQUA BASIN BELOW THE DRIER EAST WINDS ALOFT. THAT DRIER  
AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES  
WILL CLEAR OUT THEREAFTER. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD POPPING UP  
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND 4000 FEET, ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD STAY  
SCATTERED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS.  
 
-SMITH  
 

 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2025
 
A THERMAL  
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS INTO MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST  
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, AND ALL OTHER AREAS  
EXPERIENCING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. THE THERMAL TROUGH  
WEAKENS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING FROM EAST TO WEST. A  
BRIEF PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY MUCH OF THE WATERS, BUT STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST  
BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS LIKELY RETURN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS  
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS OFFSHORE, THEN MOVES INLAND OVER THE  
WEEKEND. SEAS TRANSITION TO SWELL DOMINATED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF  
THE WEEK, BUT ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT. /BR-Y  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2025
 
A  
THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST HAS INDUCED OFFSHORE (EAST TO  
NORTHEAST) FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS OF 20  
TO 30 MPH ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE RIVER  
AND SISKIYOU NATIONAL FORESTS AND WE EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT ACROSS  
THE LANDSCAPE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY  
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE 15-25% RANGE. EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
PEAK TONIGHT OVER THE UPPER SLOPES/RIDGES WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH  
COMMON, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOST EXPOSED AREAS  
OF THE CASCADES. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL TREND LOWER FOR MONDAY AND  
(LOWEST) TUESDAY MORNINGS, LARGELY REMAINING IN THE MODERATE RANGE,  
BUT COULD BE LOCALLY POOR TUESDAY MORNING. MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY, HOWEVER, EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKER, SO THERE  
IS LESS CONCERN FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
GIVEN THAT FUELS HAVE MODERATED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO RECENT WET AND  
COOL WEATHER, AND MANY LOCATIONS HAVE LOWERED THE FIRE DANGER TO  
MODERATE OR BETTER, WE'LL MAINTAIN A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER  
PLANNING FORECAST FOR THIS EASTERLY FLOW EVENT.  
 
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATER ON TUESDAY AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES  
WILL TREND SOMEWHAT HIGHER, AND RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE  
IMPROVED. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION  
STARTING WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD JUST  
OFFSHORE, BUT DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE TRENDING HIGHER.  
THERE'S UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS SYSTEM TRAVERSES, BUT  
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.  
WHILE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS REMAINS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING  
FOR A RETURN TO COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO  
THE WEEKEND. /BR-Y  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY  
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 

 
 

 
 
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