053  
FXUS66 KMFR 061933  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
1233 PM PDT MON OCT 6 2025  
   
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 
 
   
AVIATION...06/18Z TAFS  
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLEAR  
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON  
TODAY. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP THIS MORNING, AND THIS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REPORTS OF SPEED SHEAR HAVE BEEN  
COMING NEAR MEDFORD WITH BUMPY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THIS  
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR 10-15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN  
AREAS NEAR THE ROGUE VALLEY (MEDFORD) THROUGH 0-3 Z. SOME LOCATIONS  
ALONG RIDGETOPS AND IN THE ROGUE VALLEY FROM MEDFORD SOUTH WILL  
CONTINUE SEEING STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT. OVERALL, LIGHTER WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
-DW/HERMANSEN  
 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
/ISSUED 559 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2025/  
 
DISCUSSION...OUR REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE,  
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE FROM CENTRAL  
CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER ALONG THE COAST OF ALASKA. AFTER A CHILLY  
START THIS MORNING, THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMING AND DRYING TODAY  
WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL BE AT A PEAK OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS FROM THE COAST RANGE TO THE CASCADES EARLY THIS MORNING,  
THEN THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN ROGUE  
VALLEY FROM AROUND ASHLAND TO PHOENIX. THIS INCLUDES A PEAK EAST  
WIND GUST OF 33 MPH RECORDED AT 445 AM AT ONION MOUNTAIN IN  
JOSEPHINE COUNTY, WHICH MAY BE MATCHED BY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN  
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY LATER TODAY.  
 
ARGUABLY, THE OTHER MOST NOTABLE ASPECT OF TODAY'S WEATHER WILL  
BE A CHETCO EFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE COAST RANGE, WITH A  
HIGH AROUND 80 EXPECTED AT BROOKINGS THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF  
OUR COAST WILL NO BE FAR BEHIND WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER  
70S EXPECTED TO BE COMMON. MORE BROADLY, WIDESPREAD WARMING IS  
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS A FEW TO A DOZEN DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON THE WEST SIDE, MID 60S TO  
AROUND 70 ON THE EAST SIDE, AND 50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH INLAND SITES LIKELY TO REACH  
THEIR PEAK VALUES FOR THE WEEK. 80 DEGREE VALUES WILL BECOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER, WIND FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE END OF  
TUESDAY, SO THE COAST SHOULD SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO  
ONSHORE FLOW.  
 
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT  
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER  
TEMPERATURES AND A 15% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG OUR NORTHERN  
PORTION OF COASTLINE NEAR NORTH BEND AND FLORENCE. SOME LOCATIONS  
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TREND 10 DEGREES LOWER.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW  
JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. DATA SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A LOW 10 TO  
20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN OUR REGION,  
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REALLY SEEM TO STRUGGLE WHERE TO PLACE  
IT OR IF TO PRODUCE ANY AT ALL.  
 
EVENTUALLY THIS LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL  
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ABOUT 70-80% OF  
00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE RAINFALL IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE  
WEEK, BUT THERE IS STILL A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING  
WHERE, WHEN, AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL TO EXPECT. THIS MAY INCLUDE A  
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ITSELF MOVES INLAND, WITH THE  
HIGHEST PROBABILITY CENTERED OVER THE EAST SIDE AROUND SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
ONCE THE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INLAND, A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO OUR  
MOST RECENT LARGE TROUGH PASSAGE MAY OCCUR WITH THE FLOW ALOFT  
SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND A COLDER, SHOWERY  
START TO NEXT WEEK.  
-SMITH/DW  
 
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2025...A THERMAL  
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING,  
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED BEYOND 10 NM  
FROM SHORE. THIS WILL CONTINUE A STEEP COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND  
FRESH SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING, THEN MOST OF THE OUTER  
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPECIFICALLY, ALL OF THE OUTER WATERS  
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO  
BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE.  
 
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT AT 7 SECONDS.  
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS LIKELY RETURN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE OF  
NORTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS EARLY THURSDAY. THIS BRIEF INCREASE  
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST SHY OF HIGH AND STEEP LEVELS.  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY REACH THE LOW  
END OF ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE  
LINGERS OFFSHORE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE  
WEEKEND WITH MARINE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST SOUTH  
OF CAPE BLANCO, AND MAY REACH ADVISORY STRENGTH.  
/BR-Y/DW  
 
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT MONDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2025...  
YESTERDAY'S DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID, AND INCLUDED BELOW. I DID  
WANT TO DRAW SPECIAL ATTENTION BY REITERATING A FEW SPECIFICS,  
ESPECIALLY REGARDING WINDS OVER THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE  
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WILL BE STRONGEST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH  
PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE  
POOREST ON TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH WITH WEAKER EASTERLY WIND GUSTS  
COMMONLY EXPECTED AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ROGUE  
VALLEY, FROM ASHLAND TO PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS  
OF 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH NOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, EXCEPT  
TRENDING UP TO AND THEN BACK DOWN FROM A THREE-HOUR-LONG PEAK OF  
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM TODAY.  
WITH FUELS AT MODERATE FIRE DANGER, (AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON  
HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BE JUST SHY OF CRITERIA BESIDES) ANTECEDENT  
CONDITIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.  
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN  
SIMILARLY GUSTY, WINDY SOUTH WINDS IN THE SAME AREA ON THURSDAY  
WITH GUSTS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY NEAR  
WEED. -DW  
 
FROM SUNDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST HAS INDUCED OFFSHORE  
(EAST TO NORTHEAST) FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF THE  
ROGUE RIVER AND SISKIYOU NATIONAL FORESTS AND WE EXPECT THINGS TO  
DRY OUT ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON  
HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE 15-25% RANGE. EAST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT OVER THE UPPER SLOPES/RIDGES WITH GUSTS OF  
25-35 MPH COMMON, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOST  
EXPOSED AREAS OF THE CASCADES. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL TREND LOWER  
FOR MONDAY AND (LOWEST) TUESDAY MORNINGS, LARGELY REMAINING IN THE  
MODERATE RANGE, BUT COULD BE LOCALLY POOR TUESDAY MORNING. MONDAY  
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER, EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKER,  
SO THERE IS LESS CONCERN FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY. GIVEN THAT FUELS HAVE MODERATED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO RECENT  
WET AND COOL WEATHER, AND MANY LOCATIONS HAVE LOWERED THE FIRE  
DANGER TO MODERATE OR BETTER, WE'LL MAINTAIN A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE  
WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR THIS EASTERLY FLOW EVENT.  
 
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATER ON TUESDAY AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES  
WILL TREND SOMEWHAT HIGHER, AND RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE  
IMPROVED. BUT, MAJOR IMPROVEMENT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COAST UNTIL  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION  
STARTING WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD JUST  
OFFSHORE, BUT DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE TRENDING HIGHER.  
THERE'S UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS SYSTEM TRAVERSES, BUT  
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.  
WHILE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS REMAINS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING  
FOR A RETURN TO COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO  
THE WEEKEND. /BR-Y  
 
 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...NONE.  
 
CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS  
EVENING FOR PZZ370-376.  
 
 
 
 
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