730  
FXUS66 KMFR 070526  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
1026 PM PDT MON OCT 6 2025  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
AFTER A COOLER MORNING IN THE 30S AND 40S, TEMPERATURES  
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE PRESENT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE TONIGHT FOR  
BREEZIER CONDITIONS NEAR THE ROGUE VALLEY (NEAR MEDFORD AND SOUTH  
THROUGH ASHLAND) AS THE TRANSITION BETWEEN TROUGHING TO RIDGING IS  
AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  
 
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, EQUATING  
TO 70S FOR THE COAST, UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S INLAND WEST OF THE  
CASCADES, AND 60S TO LOW 70S EAST. TUESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL  
BEGIN PASSING THROUGH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SHOWERS DEVELOP  
NEAR THE COAST AS THIS PASSES, BUT IT HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST  
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES  
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AS THE UPPER TROUGH  
CONTINUES SWINGING SOUTHWARD LATER THIS WEEK. THERE ARE STILL  
DIFFERENCES FOR THE START TIME AND LOCATIONS OF THE RAIN. THE EC IS  
HINTING AT THE LOW BEING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, BRINGING A  
CHANCE INTO THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE OTHER  
SIDE OF THIS IS THE GFS THAT DISTANCES THE LOW FARTHER WEST, AND  
KEEPS DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, BECAUSE ENSEMBLES  
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BE CLOSER TO SOUTHERN OREGON  
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SLIGHT CHANCE TO  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. POP CHANCES  
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR  
MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW, DRY CONDITIONS COULD RETURN  
TUESDAY AS RIDGING MOVES IN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...07/06Z TAFS
 
VFR LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND  
VISIBILITIES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS  
LOOK TO INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES AND WEST SIDE TERRAIN EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY BRING BREEZY PERIODS TO THE THE MEDFORD  
TERMINAL. WINDS EASE LATER IN THE MORNING, WITH ONLY NORMAL DIURNAL  
FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. -TAD  
 

 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT MONDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2025
 
A THERMAL  
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS  
THROUGH THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN A COMBINATION STEEP SEAS DUE TO  
WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS IS  
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS BRIEFLY EASE.  
 
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL AREAS  
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND  
TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE IN  
TERMS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, BUT ENOUGH SO INTO THE  
ADVISORY CATEGORY TO MOVE FORWARD WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR  
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT  
IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE OF NORTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS  
EARLY THURSDAY. WITH THE WEAKENING OF NORTH WINDS, AND SEAS  
TRANSITIONING TO SWELL DOMINATED, SEAS WILL BECOME LESS STEEP AND  
LESS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.  
 
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY REACH THE LOW END OF  
ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS  
OFFSHORE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH  
MARINE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
THESE NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,  
AND MAY REACH ADVISORY STRENGTH. /BR-Y  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
UPDATED 200 PM PDT MONDAY, OCTOBER 6,  
2025...OFFSHORE (EAST TO NORTHEAST) FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING. THE ROGUE VALLEY IN PARTICULAR, IS EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTY  
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING, EXCEPT FOR THE CURRENT UPTICK WHERE WINDS ARE MORE ALONG  
THE LINES OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL  
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15-25% RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY, POSSIBLY INTO  
WEDNESDAY. RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE POOREST TUESDAY  
MORNING, THOUGH WITH WEAKER EASTERLY WIND GUSTS COMMONLY EXPECTED AT  
15 TO 20 MPH, SO THERE IS LESS CONCERN FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS  
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THAT FUELS HAVE MODERATED SUBSTANTIALLY  
DUE TO RECENT WET AND COOL WEATHER, AND MANY LOCATIONS HAVE LOWERED  
THE FIRE DANGER TO MODERATE OR BETTER, WE'LL MAINTAIN A HEADLINE IN  
THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR THIS EASTERLY FLOW EVENT.  
 
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATER ON TUESDAY, AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES  
WILL TREND SOMEWHAT HIGHER WITH IMPROVED RECOVERIES EXPECTED TUESDAY  
NIGHT. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT, HOWEVER, WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COAST  
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE  
REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD  
JUST OFFSHORE, BUT DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE TRENDING HIGHER.  
THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL  
OREGON WHERE GUSTS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE'S  
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS SYSTEM TRAVERSES, BUT THERE  
COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. WHILE  
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS REMAINS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A  
RETURN TO COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND. /BR-Y  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5  
AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 

 
 

 
 
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