758  
FXUS66 KMFR 071229  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
529 AM PDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
   
DISCUSSION
 
THE FORECAST SEPARATES INTO 3 PORTIONS. FIRST, A  
CONTINUATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER BOTH HIGH PRESSURE  
TODAY, AND A TRANSITION DAY TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING BROAD  
CLOSED LOW. THE LOW WILL BE OVER ALASKA TODAY AND MOVE TO NEAR  
VANCOUVER ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RESEMBLE  
THOSE OF YESTERDAY, THEN THEY WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER  
FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS INCLUDES A MARINE PUSH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING WITH OVERCAST SKIES FOR COOS AND WESTERN/NORTHERN DOUGLAS  
COUNTIES. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN FROM THE COAST RANGE TO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING, BUT  
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ELSEWHERE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE  
CASCADES EASTWARD.  
 
SECOND, WHILE THE SPECIFICS ARE STILL IN QUESTION, CONFIDENCE IS  
HIGH IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE FEATURES THAT WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE  
PATTERN DRIVEN BY THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH, RESULTING IN: COOLER  
TEMPERATURES, RAIN CHANCES, AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. THE  
PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE HIGHEST ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFICS ARISES FROM A WIDE RANGE OF  
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE, AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS. THE 06Z GFS IS AMONG THOSE SHOWING A SLOW MOISTENING OF  
THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE AIR MASS. IN SUCH AN INSTANCE,  
VIRGA MAY BE COMMON ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT,  
MEASUREABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CASCADES. BY FRIDAY, A STRONGER  
SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO OUR  
REGION. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RAIN CHANCES WOULD  
BE ON AND NEAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES ON THE WEST SIDE.  
THIS INCLUDES CURRY, JOSEPHINE, AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SISKIYOU  
COUNTIES. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS THAT IT WOULD BE LATE FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PROBABILITY OF  
PRECIPITATION REACHES A PEAK ON THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO  
BE AROUND 6500 TO 7500 FEET, STILL ABOVE ALL BUT THE BACK COUNTRY.  
PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER.  
 
BY SATURDAY, THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE  
NORTHWEST, ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS DEPICT THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE FOCUSED UPON WASHINGTON AND  
NORTHERN OREGON, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IN OUR  
AREA FOR OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES,  
POSSIBLY INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS AND VERY  
COOL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN RESULTS.  
 
THIRD, MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES ARE MAINLY SHOWN AS DISAGREEMENT IN THE  
EXTENT TO WHICH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE WEST  
COAST OR SHIFTS TOWARD THE ROCKIES. SECONDARILY, THE EXTENT TO  
WHICH WEAK RIDGING COULD NUDGE INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN THE PARADE OF  
TROUGHS IN A CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL, NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT. THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION INDICATES SLIGHT CHANCE TO  
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT RAIN. AS A WHOLE, THE ECMWF  
ENSEMBLE SUITE LEANS MORE TOWARD A COOLER AND WETTER, MORE  
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. HISTORICAL BIAS WOULD SUGGEST  
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF. -DW  
 

 
   
AVIATION...07/12Z TAFS
 
VFR LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND  
VISIBILITIES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. BREEZY EASTERLY  
WINDS OVER THE CASCADES AND WEST SIDE TERRAIN WILL EASE BY THIS  
AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL  
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING, AND SPREAD INTO  
THE COQUILLE, CAMAS, AND LOWER UMPQUA VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANTIME, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ELSEWHERE. -DW  
 

 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2025
 
A BRIEF  
PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS  
WINDS BRIEFLY EASE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO  
RETURN TO ALL AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS  
WILL BE BORDERLINE IN TERMS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, BUT  
ENOUGH SO INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY TO SUPPORT A SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK  
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE OF NORTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED  
SEAS EARLY THURSDAY. WITH THE WEAKENING OF NORTH WINDS, AND SEAS  
TRANSITIONING TO SWELL DOMINATED, SEAS WILL BECOME LESS STEEP AND  
LESS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.  
 
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY REACH THE LOW END OF  
ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS  
OFFSHORE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH  
MARINE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
THESE NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,  
AND MAY REACH ADVISORY STRENGTH. /BR-Y  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
UPDATED 200 PM PDT MONDAY, OCTOBER 5,  
2025...OFFSHORE (EAST TO NORTHEAST) FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING. THE ROGUE VALLEY IN PARTICULAR, IS EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTY  
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING, EXCEPT FOR THE CURRENT UPTICK WHERE WINDS ARE MORE ALONG  
THE LINES OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL  
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15-25% RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY, POSSIBLY INTO  
WEDNESDAY. RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE POOREST TUESDAY  
MORNING, THOUGH WITH WEAKER EASTERLY WIND GUSTS COMMONLY EXPECTED AT  
15 TO 20 MPH, SO THERE IS LESS CONCERN FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS  
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THAT FUELS HAVE MODERATED SUBSTANTIALLY  
DUE TO RECENT WET AND COOL WEATHER, AND MANY LOCATIONS HAVE LOWERED  
THE FIRE DANGER TO MODERATE OR BETTER, WE'LL MAINTAIN A HEADLINE IN  
THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR THIS EASTERLY FLOW EVENT.  
 
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATER ON TUESDAY, AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES  
WILL TREND SOMEWHAT HIGHER WITH IMPROVED RECOVERIES EXPECTED TUESDAY  
NIGHT. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT, HOWEVER, WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COAST  
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE  
REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD  
JUST OFFSHORE, BUT DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE TRENDING HIGHER.  
THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL  
OREGON WHERE GUSTS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE'S  
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS SYSTEM TRAVERSES, BUT THERE  
COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. WHILE  
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS REMAINS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A  
RETURN TO COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND. /BR-Y  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 

 
 

 
 
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