469  
FXUS66 KMFR 072124  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
224 PM PDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
   
DISCUSSION
 
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY WITH SOME TEMPERATURES 5-10  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS ARE  
WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S FOR THE  
COAST, UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR INLAND AREAS WEST OF THE  
CASCADES, AND 60S TO LOW 70S FOR SPOTS EAST. TONIGHT, A MARINE  
PUSH COMES IN AND WILL BRING CLOUDIER SKIES FOR COOS COUNTY AND  
INTO NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY.  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN REACHING THE COAST WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON, WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. 700  
MB WINDS SHOW THAT EAST SIDE LOCATIONS COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 30  
KT AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONGER AT 30-40 KT.  
 
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES  
SWINGING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES  
FOR THE START TIME AND LOCATIONS OF THE RAIN, BUT IT IS FORECAST TO  
BEGIN FRIDAY WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING THEN. THROUGH THE DAY  
FRIDAY, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE CURRY COUNTY COAST IS  
FORECAST TO RECEIVE 0.75"-1.25", WITH 0.25"-0.50" FOR INLAND AREAS  
WEST OF THE CASCADES AND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH EAST. THE EC  
IS THE WETTER SOLUTION AND IS KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE END OF THE RAIN, AND  
IT IS LOOKING LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS COULD RETURN WEDNESDAY. THE EC  
KEEPS THE UPPER LOW AROUND THE NW US WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT  
WEEK WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES ITS TRACK SOUTH, SO THIS WILL BE AN  
AREA TO REVIEW IN THE COMING DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...07/18Z TAFS
 
VFR LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND  
VISIBILITIES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. BREEZY EASTERLY  
WINDS OVER THE CASCADES AND WEST SIDE TERRAIN HAVE BEEN EASING THIS  
MORNING. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL  
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING, AND SPREAD INTO  
THE COQUILLE, CAMAS, AND LOWER UMPQUA VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANTIME, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ELSEWHERE. -  
DW/HERMANSEN  
 

 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2025
 
NORTH  
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL AREAS EARLY THIS  
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND  
TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE IN  
TERMS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, BUT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK  
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE OF  
NORTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. WITH THE WEAKENING OF NORTH WINDS,  
AND SEAS TRANSITIONING TO SWELL DOMINATED, SEAS WILL BECOME LESS  
STEEP AND LESS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.  
 
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY REACH THE LOW END OF  
ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS  
OFFSHORE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH  
MARINE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
-PETRUCELLI  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY  
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 

 
 

 
 
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