855
FXUS66 KMFR 091754
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1054 AM PDT THU OCT 9 2025
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.
AVIATION...09/18Z TAFS
VFR PREVAILS AREA WIDE LATE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY WEST OF
THE CASCADES AS A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE
CONDITIONS LARGELY REMAIN VFR, THIS MAY INCLUDE LOCAL MVFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
AREAS OF MVFR SPREAD FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE COAST RANGE
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 1050 AM PDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2025
SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH, AND STEEP SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SWELL DOMINATED SEAS BUILD DURING THE WEEKEND. STEEP SEAS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING
SUNDAY. ANOTHER SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE STEEP SEAS.
-SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 611 AM PDT THU OCT 9 2025/
DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
EXPECTED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION ON OUR AREA DURING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, AND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE CASCADES, AND THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND BREEZY WINDS
ALSO FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PRODUCES A WETTING RAIN AT LEAST
FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES, AND POSSIBLY ON THE EAST SIDE.
THIS WILL INCLUDE SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET, A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS (POSSIBLY EXTENDING ACROSS
DOUGLAS COUNTY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON), AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON
THE EAST SIDE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST FOR
CURRY, WESTERN JOSEPHINE, AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES AT AROUND
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH. MEANTIME, AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.15 INCHES TO
A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FROM THE COAST TO THE
CASCADES, AND UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE EAST SIDE.
COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN
FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES NORTHWARD.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY
AND ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO FRIDAY IS THAT THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA, RATHER THAN
EASTWARD. AS SUCH, SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT ON THE DURATION AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. BUT,
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS FOR SNOW LEVELS TO AGAIN BE AROUND 5500
TO 6000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED FROM THE COAST TO THE
CASCADES AND NEW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO AN INCH. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME 40S ON THE EAST SIDE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES BEYOND MONDAY. WEAKER DISTURBANCES
IN A COLD, ACTIVE, NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. BUT, THE MODEL SPREAD IS GREATER REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON THURSDAY, OR WE MAY GET A BREAK
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING HIGHER BY SEVERAL
DEGREES, ALMOST BACK UP TO NORMAL.
AVIATION...09/12Z TAFS...CONDITIONS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE CASCADES. THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THE CASE TODAY, THROUGH AROUND 00Z. THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY WEST OF
THE CASCADES AS A COLD FRONT NOW FAR OFFSHORE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THIS MAY INCLUDE LOCAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. BY 12Z, EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS
OF MVFR WILL SPREAD FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE COAST RANGE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
-DW
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2025...SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO TODAY, MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY
BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH, AND STEEP
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SWELL DOMINATED SEAS BUILD DURING THE WEEKEND. STEEP SEAS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING
SUNDAY. ANOTHER SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE STEEP SEAS.
-DW/BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
MAS/MAS/MAS
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