316
FXUS66 KMFR 102138
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
238 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2025
DISCUSSION
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION STRETCHES FROM CAPE
MENDOCINO NORTHEAST THROUGH SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN UP ALONG THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST OFFSHORE
AND ARE MOVING ONTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST, AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, AND WHILE MOST OF THOSE SHOWERS WILL
STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGES, MANY WILL PUSH AS FAR
EAST AS THE CASCADES. EARLIER TODAY, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MADE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, AND EVEN GAVE A
THUNDEROUS WAKE-UP CALL TO PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL, MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST, BUT A FEW STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE DUE
TO SOME LITTLE POCKETS OF RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND WITH THE
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AS IT PASSES ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST AND OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH, AN
IMPULSE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TOUGH ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES,
BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA, THEN
TURNS BACK INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR SAN FRANCISCO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL PICK UP
AGAIN ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN SUNDAY, THEN
SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DRY
OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LINGER OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY, THEN SPREAD
INTO THE EAST SIDE OF OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PUMPS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE CASCADES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
DRY, AS THE EAST WINDS PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS FROM THE
CASCADES.
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FROM ROUGHLY 6000
FT THIS AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 5000 FT TONIGHT, THEN AFTER A BRIEF
RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, WILL LOWER TO 5000 FT AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SAME CYCLE REPEATS YET AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS SO FAR THIS
SEASON, AND WILL RESULT IN SNOW OVER THE AREA PEAKS AND OUR
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES. HOWEVER, AS THIS IS EXPECTED DURING
PERIODS OF MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION, AND THE GROUND REMAINS
SOMEWHAT WARM, ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IS
FORECAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SUCH AS CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK RIM
DRIVE OVER 7000 FEET, WILL SEE HEAVIER SNOWS OF UP TO A FOOT
TOTAL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST SIDE.
THIS LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY, AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST,
DRYING THINGS OUT AND ALLOWING FOR SOME MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT, WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS FAVORING CONTINUED RIDGING, SOME BRINGING A TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, AND SOME DROPPING ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW ALONG THE COAST. WITH A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES, HAVE
KEPT THE "BROAD AVERAGE" NBM SOLUTION IN PLACE, WHICH PUTS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOPEFULLY MORE DETAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS. -BPN
AVIATION...10/18Z TAFS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR, THOUGH LOCAL MVFR AND
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE EAST SIDE, INCLUDING AT KLAMATH FALLS, WHERE
WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 30KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND
23Z.
WE'VE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NORTH BEND, ROSEBURG, AND
MEDFORD, WHERE THERE IS ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING NEARBY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHTNING POTENTIAL DROPS OFF AFTER 00-
03Z. THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN OREGON TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. IF THIS
OCCURS LONG ENOUGH, SOME LOWER IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS RETURNS FROM THE NW
DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2025
LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
MEANWHILE, THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTH WINDS, AND STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY, BUT
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD INTO
THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL
COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
MARINE WATERS THEN.
ANOTHER SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO RESULT IN STEEP SEAS.
-PETRUCELLI/SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page