161
FXUS66 KMFR 111830
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1130 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2025
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.
AVIATION...11/18Z TAFS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE LOWER CEILINGS THAT FORMED IN SOME AREAS
LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN SO,
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN AND THIS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN LOWER MVFR
CEILINGS AND/OR TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES.
TONIGHT, A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOSTLY WEST SIDE SHOWERS, BUT CLEARING AND STABILIZATION
COULD OCCUR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEHIND THESE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH, SOME LOWER CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP. WE'VE INDICATED LOCAL
IFR CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE TAF LOCATIONS (ROSEBURG AND KLAMATH
FALLS) THAT HAD IT THIS MORNING AND HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY AGAIN
HERE IN MEDFORD. ONE THING GOING AGAINST IT HAPPENING AT KMFR IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A LONGER LASTING HIGHER CEILING, WHICH WOULD PREVENT
THE LOW-LEVEL STABILIZTAITON NEEDED FOR IFR. AS IT STANDS, THERE'S
ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF IFR, SO WE'VE SHOWN SCT006 IN THE TAF AND
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. ANY LOWER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST, TO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND THE CASCADES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 1115 AM PDT SATURDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2025
WITH
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENING OVER THE WATERS TODAY, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS PERSIST AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WE EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY SWELL TO BUILD
INTO THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE
STEEP ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BACK TO THE MARINE
WATERS THEN. WE'VE ADJUSTED THE MARINE HEADLINES TO INTRODUCE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER THE OUTER WATERS, AND
THEN IMPACTING THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WE EXPECT STRONGER NORTH WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP SEAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS SHOULD RETURN
ON WEDNESDAY. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 345 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2025/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW JUST INLAND OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
DAY, THEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOL WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
DURING THE DAY DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A
WARM GROUND SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES ON THE
GROUND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE WILL BE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EVEN THEN ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET AND
HIGHER.
WE'LL HAVE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER DURING THIS TIME MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT, BUT AS MENTIONED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT, THUS LIMITING SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARDS OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WERE LIKELY TO SEE A NET INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTH COAST, NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND NORTHERN CASCADES AS A
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A NET INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. SNOW
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THIS WOULD PUT
SNOW OVER OUR HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES, BUT AS THIS IS EXPECTED DURING
PERIODS OF MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. AND THE GROUND REMAINS
SOMEWHAT WARM, ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IS FORECAST.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SUCH AS CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK RIM DRIVE OVER
7000 FEET, COULD SEE HEAVIER SNOW WITH UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, ONLY A TRACE TO AN INCH
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE EAST SIDE.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
SHOW THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINING SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW IS ONE THAT WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THUS RESULTING IN MOST AREAS AND HOURS
BECOMING DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAL
DURING THIS TIME. -PETRUCELLI
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT, WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS FAVORING CONTINUED RIDGING, SOME BRINGING A TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, AND SOME DROPPING ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW ALONG THE COAST. WITH A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES, HAVE
KEPT THE "BROAD AVERAGE" NBM SOLUTION IN PLACE, WHICH PUTS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOPEFULLY MORE DETAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS. -BPN
AVIATION...11/12Z TAFS...STABLE CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN LOW
CEILINGS AROUND THE GRANTS PASS AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTSIDE,
INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION STARTING BETWEEN 16-18Z AND LASTING UNTIL THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DESPITE VFR CONDITIONS BEING THE PREDOMINATE
CONDITION, THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECTED THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO BE PARTLY
OBSCURED. =PETRUCELLI
MARINE...UPDATED 245 AM PDT SATURDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2025...AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MARINE WATERS HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE
ANY ISOLATED STORMS COULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH
30 KTS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS. OTHERWISE, A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS SWELL COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BACK TO THE MARINE WATERS THEN.
ANOTHER SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO RESULT IN STEEP SEAS.
-PETRUCELLI
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
MAS/MAS/MAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page