191
FXUS66 KMFR 121018
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
318 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2025
DISCUSSION
COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY AROUND
ROSEBURG AND COOS BAY FOR THIS MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING. RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AND PEAK CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
THIS LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WETTING RAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES
WITH WIDESPREAD 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION.
HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE
HIGHER CASCADES, ALTHOUGH THAT WILL FALL AS SNOW WITH 4500 FOOT
TO 5000 FOOT SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE EVENT. CRATER LAKE WILL GET A
GOOD SHOT OF SNOW HERE WITH ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTING 6 INCHES IS
PRETTY LIKELY WITH UP TO 8 INCHES ALSO PRETTY REASONABLE. MOST OF
THAT IS FALLING AROUND 7000 FEET AND JUST AT CRATER LAKE, SO WE
OPTED TO STAY AWAY FROM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER, IF ONE
IS CONSIDERING TRAVELING TO CRATER LAKE, PREPARE FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION AND SOME DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
THIS LOW WILL DIVE DOWN THE COAST AND BRING IN SOME UNUSUALLY COOL
CONDITIONS EVEN FOR MID OCTOBER. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3700
FEET BY MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE
AT THAT ELEVATION AS PRECIPITATION MODE WILL TURN SHOWERY. SO THE
SUN SHOULD BREAK THROUGH BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AND GET SOME HEAT ON
ROADS AND LOWER SURFACES.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THE GFS AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME WEAKER EASTERLY WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH
SHOULD WARM AND DRY US OUT. IN ANY CASE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOVER
IN THE MID TO LOWER 50'S WEST SIDE AND UPPER 40'S EAST OF THE
CASCADES.
ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WE'LL SEE DRIER
CONDITIONS SETTLE INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW. THERE
IS STILL SOME VORTICITY AROUND, SO CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, BUT IT WILL BE TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER
TUESDAY ONWARDS.
THE LATEST NBM FORECAST HAS US REVISITING THE 70 DEGREE MARK HERE
IN MEDFORD BY SATURDAY. THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE FORECAST HAS A
HIGH OF 67, SO WE'LL DEFINITELY BE TRENDING WARMER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK.
-SMITH
AVIATION...12/06Z TAFS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FROM THE
COAST TO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN LOWER
MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. ALSO, STABILIZATION COULD
OCCUR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEHIND THESE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH,
SOME LOWER CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP. WE'VE INDICATED LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE TAF LOCATIONS (ROSEBURG AND KLAMATH FALLS)
THAT HAD IT THIS MORNING AND HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY AGAIN HERE IN
MEDFORD. ONE THING GOING AGAINST IT HAPPENING AT KMFR IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A LONGER LASTING HIGHER CEILING, WHICH WOULD PREVENT
THE LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION NEEDED FOR IFR. AS IT STANDS, THERE'S
ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF IFR, SO WE'VE SHOWN FEW006 IN THE TAF AND
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. ANY LOWER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST, TO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND THE CASCADES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
-SPILDE
MARINE
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER
LOW WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY AND LAST INTO MONDAY EVENING. SIMILAR
TO THE LAST LOW, IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP SEAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS SHOULD RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-370-376.
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