926
FXUS66 KMFR 141759
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1059 AM PDT TUE OCT 14 2025
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS
AVIATION....4/18Z TAFS
CONDITIONS VARY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY LOW END VFR CEILINGS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MEANWHILE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT IN THE ROGUE/ILLINOIS/APPLEGATE
VALLEYS WITH A MIX OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.
CONDITIONS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
SOMETIME BETWEEN 18-20Z TODAY, LIKELY LINGERING THE LONGEST IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN. MEANWHILE, SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINTAINS VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT AM VERY SKEPTICAL OF THIS. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR, RECENT MOISTURE AND LACK OF A DRYING PERIOD, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE MVFR, EXCEPT
POSSIBLY IFR IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT NORTH BEND LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF FOG FROM THE COQUILLE BASIN
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD COOS BAY. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT TUESDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2025
SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP TO VERY STEEP TODAY, HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. NORTH WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AGAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD ARRIVE FRIDAY. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 410 AM PDT TUE OCT 14 2025/
DISCUSSION...THE PAST 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF MIDNIGHT
SHOWED THAT THE MOST RAINFALL FELL WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH
TOTALS REACHING 0.30"-0.75". MEDFORD WAS AN AREA THAT SAW NEAR
THE 0.75" MARK! WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY ALSO SAW SIMILAR AMOUNTS
AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES HAD AROUND 0.10". NOW THAT THINGS
ARE DRYING OUT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE 40S NEAR THE COAST
AND 30S INLAND WITH 20S IN NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES.
THESE WILL BE THE TYPICAL MORNING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW STRATUS IS BUILDING ACROSS PARTS OF DOUGLAS, JOSEPHINE AND
JACKSON COUNTIES AND ON THE EAST SIDE TONIGHT, AND THERE COULD ALSO
BE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BURN LATER IN THE MORNING, AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GET A BUMP TO NEAR NORMAL IN MORE SPOTS.
THIS MEANS MORE 60S FOR WEST SIDE AND 50S EAST, AND WE CAN EXPECT
THE SAME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT ALL OF OUR RAIN WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND
MOVE EAST. DURING THIS TIME THE EASTERN CORNERS OF MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 7,000', SO THE
WARNERS COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.
RIDGING BUILDS AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY. ENJOY IT WHILE IT
LASTS BECAUSE THE NEXT DAY A TROUGH MOVES IN AND BRINGS RAIN CHANCES
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. SNOW LEVELS DURING THAT TIME
ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 5,000'-5,500' ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS AGREEMENT
THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. DRIER CONDITIONS COULD RETURN LATER
TUESDAY, AND THE EC HAS STRONGER SIGNALS THAT AN OMEGA BLOCK COULD
BE PRESENT THAT WOULD KEEP THOSE DRY CONDITIONS AROUND. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED, BUT FOR NOW THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE LIES THAT SUNDAY
WILL SEE THE START OF THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION.
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY, OCTOBER 14,
2025...WE'RE HEADING INTO THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE DISTANT STORMS
GENERATE SWELLS WITH LONG PERIODS. THESE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS HARBOR
MORE ENERGY THAN A TYPICAL SET OF WAVES AND HAVE THE ABILITY TO
RUN UP MUCH FARTHER ON THE BEACHES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
LONG- PERIOD SWELL (7-9 FT AT ~17-19 SECONDS) ARRIVING LATER THIS
WEEK, PROBABLY SOMETIME FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
DECAYING. THIS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA
BEACHES. WE CALL THEM "SNEAKER WAVES" BECAUSE THEY AREN'T
PARTICULARLY LARGE OR EVEN HIGH WAVES, BUT BECAUSE THEY EXHIBIT
SUCH HIGH ENERGY, THEY CAN SUDDENLY WASH OVER ROCKS, LOGS AND
JETTIES WITHOUT MUCH WARNING. WE'LL BE EVALUATING THIS POTENTIAL
AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY AT SOME POINT.
-SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-
376.
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