920
FXUS66 KMFR 151107
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
407 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2025
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE UMPQUA AND COQUILLE BASINS. OTHERWISE, CLEAR
SKIES ARE PRESENT. THERE COULD BE LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP OVER
MORE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, BUT FOR NOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND
40S WEST SIDE WITH 30S EAST NOW. SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, INCLUDING
THE SCOTT VALLEY, NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THEY COULD DROP INTO
FROST TERRITORY.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR WEST SIDE AND 50S EAST,
AND WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGHS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AS HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY WILL
JUMP TO NEAR 70 TOMORROW AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER TIME FRAME TO REVIEW FOR FROST POTENTIAL AS
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST THE MID-30S IN CALIFORNIA WEST SIDE VALLEYS. TRY TO PREPARE TO
BRING POTTED PLANTS INSIDE IF POSSIBLE. WITH THE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND FROST TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE WHAT IMPACTS COME FROM THIS BEFORE ISSUING ANY COLD WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT.
RIDGING BUILDS AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL GET HIGHS
TO THE MID-70S IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND 60S TO NEAR 70 ELSEWHERE!
ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS BECAUSE THE NEXT DAY A TROUGH MOVES IN AND
BRINGS RAIN CHANCES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. SNOW LEVELS
DURING THAT TIME ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 5,000'-5,500' ONCE AGAIN.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE LOW LIES
AS IT MOVES EAST. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE AREA, KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA, WHEREAS THE EC KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER
NORTH. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY SHOWS THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK THAT KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN OREGON, BUT IN THE COMING
DAYS WE MAY NEED TO ADD MORE CHANCES TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRIER
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER THE SUNDAY-
MONDAY SYSTEM.
AVIATION...15/12Z TAFS
CLEAR SKIES AND VISIBILITIES AT AREA
TERMINALS ARE ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THIS FORECAST.
SOME CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST MODOC AND SISKIYOU
COUNTIES AND PARTS OF LAKE COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEYS HAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN SOUTH OF
ROSEBURG. MULTIPLE GUIDANCE SOURCES HAVE STARTED SHOWING A PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND COQUILLE BASIN. THE ROGUE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CLEAR, BUT PERSISTING CONDITIONS SUPPORT SLIGHT CONFIDENCE IN THE
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR UNDER CONTINUING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD MAY START TO BRING MARINE STRATUS TO COASTAL AREAS. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2025
SEAS
WILL REMAIN STEEP TO VERY STEEP TODAY, HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
WATERS, THEN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, LIGHTER WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD ARRIVE FRIDAY. -SPILDE/BPN
BEACH HAZARDS
UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 15,
2025...WE'RE HEADING INTO THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE DISTANT STORMS
GENERATE SWELLS WITH LONG PERIODS. THESE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS HARBOR
MORE ENERGY THAN A TYPICAL SET OF WAVES AND HAVE THE ABILITY TO RUN
UP MUCH FARTHER ON THE BEACHES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LONG-
PERIOD SWELL (8-10 FT AT ~17-19 SECONDS) ARRIVING LATER FRIDAY AND
LASTING INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DECAYING. THIS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES. WE CALL THEM "SNEAKER WAVES" BECAUSE
THEY AREN'T PARTICULARLY LARGE OR EVEN HIGH WAVES, BUT BECAUSE THEY
EXHIBIT SUCH HIGH ENERGY, THEY CAN SUDDENLY WASH OVER ROCKS, LOGS
AND JETTIES WITHOUT MUCH WARNING. WE'LL BE EVALUATING THIS POTENTIAL
AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY AT SOME POINT. -
SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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