710
FXUS66 KMFR 071338
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
538 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2025
DISCUSSION
WHILE THE PAST 2 TO 3 DAYS OF TRULY WET WEATHER IS
BEHIND US, WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA REPORTING AT LEAST A
MEASUREABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN YESTERDAY, THERE IS AN INTERESTING
HODGEPODGE OF CONDITIONS TO START TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH IS PASSING
BY ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON. IT IS NEAR ENOUGH TO BE PRODUCING LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH PATCHY FOG AND VERY LIGHT, WEST SLOPE
ENHANCED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS MORNING
WITH MEASUREABLE AMOUNTS MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES. MEANTIME,
WHILE LOW CLOUDS ARE NUMEROUS OVER THE AREA, THE FOG IS MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ROGUE VALLEY NEAR MEDFORD, AND THE
COQUILLE VALLEY INCLUDING NORTH BEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN
PERSIST INTO MONDAY. AS SUCH, CONDITIONS FROM TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY
CHANGE. FIRST, THE EAST SIDE IS LIKELY TO SEE FASTER CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THE WEST SIDE, WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OF
THE AIR MASS ALOFT THIS EVENING. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VALLEY FOG,
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE. MEANTIME, HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH, THE EXTENT/VARIABILITY OF NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS AND SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST, WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN
WESTERN OREGON. ALL IN ALL, THE TYPICAL SCENARIOS ARE MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE SLOWEST CLEARING IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY MONDAY WITH EXCELLENT MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A VERY WEAK, DISSIPATING FRONT BRINGING A PUSH OF
MARINE STRATUS, PARTICULARLY INTO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWARD, LATE IN THE DAY THEN LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.
THE THICK STRATUS ARRIVING AT THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF IN THE CENTRAL UMPQUA VALLEY, INCLUDING ROSEBURG,
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO CLEAR ON
TUESDAY. THIS PUSH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SPREAD
OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE, LEAVING GRANTS PASS AND MEDFORD INSTEAD WITH
YET ANOTHER SEASONABLY TYPICAL MORNING OF LATE NIGHT INTO
EARLY/MID-MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON TUESDAY, RESEMBLING
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY). OVERALL ACROSS OUR
AREA, THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH
CONSISTENTLY, SEASONABLY COOL TO CHILLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES,
AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A MINORITY OF ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KICK THE EARLY IN THE WEEK RIDGING EAST OF
OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN.
AS TIME MOVES ON, THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, MORE
AND MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS JOIN IN ADVERTISING A CHANGE BACK
TO AN ACTIVE, WET AND WINDY SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS PATTERN
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A MODERATE RESEMBLANCE TO THAT WHICH WE JUST
FINISHED YESTERDAY, AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 10/NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION...07/12Z TAFS
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND TERRAIN
OBSCURATION WILL LINGER THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS OF IFR IN COOS
COUNTY (INCLUDING NORTH BEND AND THE COQUILLE VALLEY) AND JACKSON
COUNTY (MAINLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY FROM MEDFORD TO CENTRAL POINT AND
PHOENIX). ALSO, AREAS OF MORNING MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY NOON, 20Z, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF RIDGING FOLLOWS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG INVERSIONS DEVELOPING AND
RESULTING IN AREAS OF VALLEY LIFR/IFR EXPECTED, MAINLY WEST OF THE
CASCADES.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2025
WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BUT, A SLOWLY
DIMINISHING HIGH AND STEEP WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 10 TO 15 FT AT 12
TO 14 SECONDS WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS DEVELOP AND
INCREASE MONDAY, AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY STRENGTH SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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