522
FXUS66 KMFR 081623
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
823 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2025
DISCUSSION
VISIBILITY IS IMPROVING TO A QUARTER MILE IN MEDFORD
AND OVER A MILE IN ROSEBURG. HOWEVER, THIS FOG HAS BEEN VERY
LOCALIZED AS SOUTH MEDFORD IS NOT SEEING THIS LOW OF VISIBILITY
RIGHT NOW. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER,
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9:30 AM. AFTER, ALL
AREAS WILL CONTINUE SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AHEAD. THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. -9
MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2025
IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP THROUGH
THIS MORNING, THEN LOWER BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY ON MONDAY. NORTH WINDS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY STRENGTH SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT
MORE IMPACTFUL WINDS AND WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY,
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 431 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2025/
DISCUSSION...FOG HAS RETURNED TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, AND MAY
LOCALLY FALL BELOW 1/4 MILE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR
MOST LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH 10 AM TO COMMUNICATE THESE EXISTING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS, CONTINUING ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY LOOKS TO
BRING DAYTIME HIGHS THAT ARE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
COASTAL AREAS AND WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE HIGH 60S
TO LOW 70S, WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ANOTHER DRY DAY MAY SOMEWHAT IMPACT
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD FOG IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WILL RAISE
DAYTIME HIGHS ANOTHER FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, AN
APPROACHING TROUGH LOOKS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MARINE AND COASTAL SHOWERS, BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL IF SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
COOL STEADILY BUT REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY SHOWING A
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING IN AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. DETAILS THIS
FAR OUT ARE DIFFICULT TO OFFER WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY
AS THE PATH OF THE CUTOFF VARIES BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS OUTCOMES.
IN GENERAL, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER CURRY COUNTY, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE MOUNT
SHASTA REGION (MOUNT SHASTA CITY, DUNSMUIR, MCCLOUD, WEED).
EXPECTED SNOW LEVELS WOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE
HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGELINES, BUT LOWER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BY THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
DOWN. NUISANCE SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE
CASCADES, IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND OVER SOME EAST SIDE
TERRAIN. BUT OVERALL, HAZARDOUS WINTRY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND OVER EAST SIDE TERRAIN, BUT ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE IN
THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH AND CUTOFF IS NEEDED TO MORE COMPLETELY
DETERMINE THE EXPECTED WINDS. -TAD
AVIATION...08/12Z TAFS...FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE ROGUE, UMPQUA,
AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE LATER INTO THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP IN KLAMATH FALLS,
SO THAT TIMING REMAINS IN THE TAFS BUT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE FLOW IS PREVENTING DEVELOPMENT AT NORTH BEND, BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IF THESE WINDS CHANGE.
VFR LEVELS ARE FORECAST ONCE OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT CLEARS, WITH ONLY
NORMAL DIURNAL BREEZES EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUING STABLE CONDITIONS
AND SURFACE MOISTURE, FOG MAY RETURN TO LOW-LYING AREAS TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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